Policy

CEC is ready for possible elections, but their date is unknown as long as martial law is in effect – sources

The Economist recently reported that elections in Ukraine could be held as early as May 2025. The Office of the President of Ukraine immediately criticized such predictions. When can elections actually take place in Ukraine – we found out Komersant ukrainskyi.

Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, immediately reacted to Western media reports about the possibility of holding elections in Ukraine in May 2025 and expressed disappointment with the Western media’s approach to issues related to Ukrainian statehood.

“What do I really like today – I’m being sarcastic – in the Western media? All the plans, everything they are writing today is to force Ukraine not to resist. Give up the territory, don’t join NATO, hold elections during the war. All of this is based on the fact that we will force Ukraine,” Mykhailo Podoliak noted

Chances of elections in May are less than 10%

Political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko in an exclusive commentary for [Kommersant] also skeptical of The Economist ‘s forecasts about the possibility of holding elections next spring.

According to the expert, this scenario is only possible if the war ends by early 2025, and unfortunately, there are no such prerequisites at the moment.

“Elections in May 2025 can only take place if the war ends by the beginning of the new year, or at least by February. I don’t see any prerequisites for this yet. I would estimate the probability that the elections will be held in May at less than 10%,” Volodymyr Fesenko emphasized.

The political scientist emphasized that a number of serious organizational and technical issues need to be resolved in order to hold the elections. According to Fesenko, the main difficulties that complicate the holding of elections in the conditions of war are the lack of funding in the budget for elections, the need for changes in legislation and updating the voter register, as a significant part of the Ukrainian population has changed their place of residence.

“Several million Ukrainians, possibly more, are now abroad. This issue requires careful preparation and time,” Volodymyr Fesenko said.

At the same time, the expert believes that the most realistic scenario is to hold elections in the fall of 2025, not in May. Given the current circumstances, the forecasts made by The Economist are too optimistic.

“Why in the fall? Because the local elections are due in late October next year, according to the Constitution. It would be logical and, by the way, cheaper if presidential, parliamentary, and local elections, which were postponed due to martial law, were held simultaneously,” says Volodymyr Fesenko.

The political analyst also noted that simultaneous presidential, parliamentary and local elections may be a more logical and economically feasible option if the war ends in 2024.

“This will reduce the cost of election campaigns and avoid additional financial and organizational burdens,” Fesenko summarized.

CEC preparing for possible end of martial law – sources [Kommersant]

Despite the Central Election Commission’s (CEC) active current work on preparations for the elections, sources in the body do not confirm rumors about the possibility of holding them in May or September 2025.

As it became known [Kommersant] has learned has learned from insider sources, the CEC is indeed holding regular meetings and discussions on mechanisms for organizing elections in the event of the end of martial law, but there are currently no official instructions to prepare for specific dates. According to the law on martial law, any elections during this period are prohibited.

“The CEC is constantly working out mechanisms, holding meetings and preparing for the fact that martial law may be announced at any time. However, there are no instructions to prepare for the elections on a specific date,” CEC sources told Kommersant Ukrainsky

Representatives of the CEC emphasized that after the martial law is lifted, the parliament must call presidential elections within 90 days. For now, according to the source.. [Kommersant] the main task of the CEC is to ensure organizational readiness for any changes, including the lifting of martial law, but the issue of the specific date of the elections remains open.

Author – Anastasia Fedor