Sugar prices will rise: why exports to the EU will change the market situation

24 January 13:04

Sugar prices will rise in Ukraine in the near future due to the resumption of exports to the EU. This was reported by the press service of the All-Ukrainian Agrarian Council with reference to the analytical department of the agricultural cooperative PUSK, according to Komersant ukrainskyi.

Since the beginning of 2025, Ukrainian producers have been able to enter the European Union market thanks to new trade facilitation agreements. This has created conditions for increasing sugar exports to the EU without the burdensome duties that previously hindered supply growth.

“We are just starting to sign contracts for exports to Europe, but in February-March we expect a significant revival in this area. In January, we actively exported sugar to Turkey and African countries, but the European market is gradually becoming a priority,” said the analytical department of the PUSK cooperative.

As of today, sugar prices in Ukraine are set at 23-24.5 thousand UAH per ton. Experts emphasize that this figure is still stable, but seasonal factors and the expansion of export supplies may provoke an increase in price in the near future.

Follow us on Telegram: the main news in brief

“January-May is usually a period of seasonal growth in sugar prices. Probably, the current price level is one of the lowest, and the price will continue to grow. The opening of the European market will also contribute to this dynamic,” the FGCU adds.

It is expected that in the coming months the share of European supplies in the export structure will increase, which, in turn, will have a positive impact on the Ukrainian economy.

As reported by [Kommersant]in 2024, Ukraine reached a historical record in sugar exports, supplying 746,300 tons of products to world markets for a total of $419 million.

Where was the sugar exported to?

40% of exports went to the European Union.

60% of sugar went to the global market, where the main buyers were MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa) and North Macedonia.

Export destinations to the world market in 2024:

  • Sri Lanka – 4%,
  • Israel – 5%,
  • Lebanon – 5%,
  • Somalia – 6%,
  • North Macedonia – 7%,
  • Cameroon – 8%,
  • Libya – 12%,
  • Turkey – 16%,
  • all others – 37%.

Follow us on Telegram: the main news in a nutshell

The preferential trade regime and its enemies

The decision to allow the free import of Ukrainian goods into the EU was made by the EU at the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion as a gesture of support for the Ukrainian economy and in response to the Russian naval blockade of Ukrainian ports. During the two years of its operation, the simplified regime has gained a lot of opponents in the European Union. In particular, the governments of Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia demand to restrict imports of Ukrainian products (later France joined this position). They claim that cheap agricultural products from Ukraine are swallowing up their markets.

Six major European farmers’ associations also protested strongly against Ukrainian products. Polish farmers have even organized a border blockade, not only with Ukraine but also with Germany.

Nevertheless, after fierce debate, the simplified trade regime with Ukraine was extended until June 5, 2025. However, at the request of these countries, it was severely restricted.

Thus, the provisions on duty-free trade were amended to include new “safeguards” to protect European producers.

In particular, the European Commission may take any measures it deems necessary if imports from Ukraine cause “significant disturbances” on the EU market or the markets of one or more EU Member States. In such a case, the European Commission may launch an “emergency brake” for particularly sensitive agricultural products. This list includes the following products:

  • poultry
  • eggs
  • sugar
  • oats
  • cereals
  • corn;
  • honey.

However, the European Commission has not only options but also responsibilities. If imports of these goods exceed the average import volumes recorded in the second half of 2021 and for the entirety of 2022 and 2023, customs tariffs must be restored within 14 days.

Thus, the EU has effectively reintroduced import quotas for many Ukrainian goods, albeit at a rather high level.

This year, Ukrainian exporters exhausted their sugar quotas in six months. Since July, the EU has not only returned the quotas, but also reduced them by 2.5 times from 2025.

Follow us on Telegram: the main news in a nutshell

Остафійчук Ярослав
Editor