Coffee futures in New York rose by 4.8% to reach $2.718 per pound, the highest level since 2011. Since the beginning of the year, prices for Arabica have risen by 40% due to a shortage of cheaper Robusta, which has increased demand for the more expensive variety. This was reported by Bloomberg, according to Komersant ukrainskyi
The main reason for the price increase is unfavourable weather conditions in Brazil. This country is the world’s leading coffee producer. Heat and drought have worsened crop forecasts for 2024-2025. Kona Hak, Head of Research at ED&F Man, stressed that the future depends on the weather, as drought continues in the main coffee regions of Brazil and no rain is expected in the near future.
Experts also express concern about the next season. According to Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera, the country is experiencing the worst drought in a decade, which threatens the 2025-2026 Arabica harvest. According to him, the rainfall in the growing regions has been significantly below normal since April.
In addition, logistical problems in the ports of many countries, a shortage of containers and weak harvests in Vietnam are exacerbating the situation.
Robusta prices also rose during the week, rising by 4.2% on Monday.
The increase in the cost of coffee has already affected supply: JM Smucker Co., the owner of the Folgers and Café Bustelo brands, raised prices in the summer and plans another increase in October. And the Pret A Manger chain in the UK cancelled its coffee subscription, which allowed to receive up to five drinks a day.
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The market in Ukraine
In Ukraine, wholesale coffee prices vary depending on the variety and quality. The cheapest options are usually robusta or blended varieties. Wholesale prices for Robusta start at around UAH 100-120 per kg, making it an affordable choice for cafes and restaurants that focus on the budget segment.
The most expensive coffee is premium Arabica grown in special conditions, such as in Central America or Africa. Its price can reach UAH 700 per kg or more. Such varieties are valued for their complex flavour profile and grain quality.
The cheapest coffee, according to the Prom trading platform, is currently available for 2 UAH/stock. This is Jacobs Monarch coffee (1 stick – 2 grams). This price is only available for wholesale from 520 sticks.
Coffee is more expensive in turban (monodose): Caffe Poli 100% Arabica costs 6 UAH 70 kopecks per 1 cup when buying from 200 units and 6 UAH 50 kopecks from 1000 units.
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Author: Alyona Kaplina