Business

Price balance: oil is getting more expensive in the world, sugar is getting cheaper. What about other prices

The World Food Price Index in March 2025 averaged 127.1 points and remained almost unchanged compared to February. This is stated in the report of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Komersant ukrainskyi reports.

The relative stability of the overall Food Price Index in March was due to the fact that a decrease in the price indices for cereals and sugar offset the increase in prices for meat and vegetable oils, while the price index for dairy products remained stable.

Cereal price index

In March, it averaged 109.7 points, which is 2.9 points or 2.6 percent less than in the previous month, and 1.2 points or 1.1 percent lower than in March 2024. Global wheat prices declined in March as concerns about crop conditions eased in some major Northern Hemisphere exporters.

After several consecutive monthly increases, global corn prices also declined in March, driven by improved crop conditions in Brazil due to recent rains, the start of harvesting in Argentina, etc.

Vegetable oil price index

This index in March amounted to 161.8 points, which is 5.8 points or 3.7 percent higher than the previous month and significantly higher – 23.9 percent – than a year earlier. International prices for palm oil have been rising for the second month in a row, mainly due to persistently tight supplies in major Southeast Asian producing countries. At the same time, global soybean oil prices increased due to strong global import demand due to its price competitiveness compared to other oils. International prices for rapeseed and sunflower oil have also risen since February, reflecting reduced supplies from major exporters.

Meat price index

The increase in the index by 1 point or 0.9 percent in March was mainly driven by higher pork prices due to a rise in prices in the European Union after Germany regained its foot-and-mouth disease-free status, prompting key trading partners, including the UK, to lift their import bans.

Lamb prices also rose due to strong global demand ahead of the Easter holidays. Similarly, global beef prices rose, reflecting limited global supply and strong international demand. At the same time, poultry prices remained largely stable.

Dairy price index

This category of prices remained stable in March, as a decline in international cheese prices was offset by an increase in butter and milk powder prices. International butter prices increased for the third consecutive month by 3.9 percent compared to February, driven by strong retail sales and rising international demand amid seasonal supply cuts in Oceania and sluggish production in Europe.

Sugar price index

In March, it amounted to 116.9 points, which is 1.6 points or 1.4% less than in February and 16.5 points or 12.3% less than a year ago. The decline was mainly due to weaker global demand, which reduced concerns about tight global sugar supplies.

The FAO Food Price Index is a measure of the monthly change in international prices for a basket of food products. It consists of the average of five commodity group price indices weighted by the average export shares of each group for 2014-2016.

What is happening with food prices in Ukraine?

In March 2025, the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club’s food monitoring showed a continuing upward trend in food prices. Most of the reasons for the fluctuations in food prices were changes in supply and demand, as well as seasonal factors affecting the market.

The largest price increase was recorded in the vegetable category. Tomatoes were the leader among the price increases (up 39% month-on-month) due to low domestic production and predominant imports from Turkey, which have recently declined slightly. The price of carrots also rose significantly, adding 30% to the retail price over the month. Its price increased due to high import dependence and seasonal shortages of domestic products.

Chicken was another product that rose significantly in March. Chicken carcass increased by 10%, fillet by 7%, and thigh by 5%. This rise in price is due to consistently high feed costs, which should gradually stabilize. At the same time, pork shows a moderate increase (1-2%), and beef added 4%.

Eggs also showed a price increase, rising by 10% per month, reaching an average price of UAH 73.1 per dozen, almost equal to the price of 2023 for the same period. The main factors are the cost of feed and weather conditions.

Dairy products continue to rise in price, but the growth rate has slowed somewhat. The biggest price increases were for milk plus 11%, Dutch cheese plus 7%, and cream plus 5%. The main reasons for the price increase were: the seasonal factor, which was supported by fluctuations in temperature and climate conditions. However, an increase in milk yields should change the price situation on the market with the onset of warm weather.

Grocery prices remained relatively stable, with the exception of sunflower oil. The price of sunflower oil rose by 4% over the month, driven by higher prices for sunflower seeds.

The only product that fell significantly was wheat flour, which lost 16% in value over the month. This can be attributed to pre-holiday promotions in supermarkets and marketing strategies of chains to increase sales ahead of the Easter holidays.