Price poles in March: tomatoes – plus 39%, flour – minus 16%. What influences prices
21 March 18:14
In March, food prices continued to rise in Ukraine, due to changes in supply and demand, as well as the influence of seasonal factors on the market. This is stated in the Product Monitoring from the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, Komersant ukrainskyi reports.
Vegetables are the most expensive
Tomatoes became the leader in the category of “Rise in price” – plus 39% per month. As noted in the Product Monitoring, this is due to low volumes of domestic production and predominant imports from Turkey, which have recently decreased slightly. Carrots also rose significantly in price, adding 30% to the retail price over the month. Its price increased due to the high level of import dependence and seasonal shortage of domestic products.
According to the experts of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, we should not expect a decline in vegetable prices until May. Domestic supply from Ukrainian producers will start appearing only at the end of April. As for the price of potatoes, it still depends on imports. Today, the vast majority of vegetables on the shelves are imported and come from the following countries:
Potatoes – Poland, Lithuania, Egypt, (other EU countries);
Tomatoes – Turkey (99% of supplies), Morocco;
Cabbage – Poland, the Netherlands, Albania, (other EU countries);
Cucumbers – Turkey (99% of supplies);
Carrots, beets, radishes, celery – Poland, Moldova, Italy, Lithuania.
Ukrainian products are also present on the shelves, but the supply is no more than 15-20%.
Chicken and eggs have risen significantly in price
Chicken carcass added 10%, fillet – 7%, thigh – 5%. This rise in price is caused by consistently high feed costs, which should gradually stabilize.
The price increase is also demonstrated by eggs, which rose by 10% per month, reaching an average price of UAH 73.1 per dozen and almost equal to the price of 2023 for the same period. The main factors are the cost of feed and weather conditions.
Beef added 4% to the price. The reasons for the further increase in the price of beef remain the same as in the previous month: an increase in the cost of live cattle at processing plants, a further reduction in the number of cattle, higher feed costs and an increase in the cost of fattening cattle.
The situation with pork remains without significant changes: the price shows a moderate increase (1-2%), purchase prices at processing plants are relatively stable, but there are some increases. Some growth is possible, but closer to May.
The rate of price increase for dairy products has slowed somewhat
The largest price increases were for milk – plus 11%, Dutch cheese – plus 7%, and cream – plus 5%.
The main reason for the price increase in this segment was the seasonal factor, which was supported by fluctuations in temperature and climate conditions. The price of dairy products should remain stable in the coming weeks. An increase in milk yields (supply) should change the price situation on the market, but this should be expected with the onset of warm weather around the end of April. Further dairy prices will also depend on the purchasing power of the population.
Grocery prices remain relatively stable
The exception to the general picture is sunflower oil, which rose by 4% over the month. Sunflower oil continues to rise in price due to the persistently high cost of sunflower seeds in wholesale purchases. The price of sunflower increased due to strong demand at processing plants and limited supply due to a smaller harvest in 2024.
At the same time, the price of buckwheat and sugar may change next month due to a decrease in domestic stocks. But the price fluctuations will not be significant.
Only flour has fallen in price
The only product that fell significantly in price was wheat flour, which lost 16% in value over the month and dropped to 25.8 UAH/kg. According to experts of the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club, the price change may be due to the decision of retailers to make discounts before the Easter holidays, as wheat prices (raw materials) have not decreased over the past month.
As of mid-March, prices for loaf and Borodino bread in supermarkets remained stable. The cost of raw materials on the domestic market remains stable. The price of bread is expected to remain unchanged in March.
