War

Trump’s three plans for Ukraine: all without joining NATO and with concessions to Russia

The Reuters news agency published an article analyzing the approaches of Donald Trump’s entourage to end the war in Ukraine. The publication notes that the advisers to the newly elected US president propose three separate plans, each of which involves territorial concessions to Russia. Another common feature of these proposals is Ukraine’s rejection of NATO membership. Komersant ukrainskyi prepared an overview of the article.

Kitt Kellogg’s plan: freezing of hostilities

The first proposed approach, which is supported by Kitt Kellogg, a retired US Army general, involves freezing the front line according to the current situation. According to this plan:

• NATO remains out of reachfor Ukraine indefinitely;
• The United States can provide Ukraine with security guarantees, but only after a peace agreement is concluded;
• military assistance to Ukraine will increase if Russia refuses to negotiate;

Kellogg and his co-author Fred Fleitz suggest that this approach will create motivation for both sides to reach a compromise. At the same time, this plan may face criticism in the US Congress, where some of Trump’s allies oppose additional military support for Ukraine.

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J.D. Vance’s proposal: a demilitarized zone

J.D. Vance, the future vice president of the United States, proposes the creation of a demilitarized zone on the current front lines. This zone should be:

• heavilyfortified to prevent new Russian incursions;
• isolated from potential military confrontation.

As in the Kellogg plan, Vance proposes to exclude Ukraine’s accession to NATO. His approach is aimed at achieving stability through physical separation, but the details of this plan remain limited, and the Ukrainian side is likely to view the demilitarized zone as a relinquishment of some sovereignty.

Richard Grenell’s idea: autonomous zones

Richard Grenell, the former acting director of national intelligence in the United States, proposes the creation of “autonomous zones ” in eastern Ukraine. The concept, in fact, provides for:

• “autonomous zones;
• Ukraine will not be able to apply for NATO membership.

No one understands what is meant by “autonomous zones” at the moment, but it seems that this concept is also on the table.

Possible challenges and consequences

All three approaches require significant concessions from Ukraine that may be unacceptable to President Zelenskyy and Ukrainian society. In particular, abandoning NATO contradicts Kyiv’s key goals. In addition, analysts doubt that Russia will compromise, given its current territorial gains.

However, according to Trump’s advisers, the final decision will depend on personal negotiations between Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy. Whether the new US president will be able to fulfill his promise to end the conflict within 24 hours of his inauguration remains in question.

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