Trump returns to politics: will he end wars in the world?
6 November 16:21
ANALYSIS FROM 
Donald Trump has announced his victory in the presidential election, emphasizing that his goal is to fix the situation in the country. Trump outlined his priorities for the United States, including addressing illegal migration and other challenges. He thanked Americans for their support, in particular, noting businessman Elon Musk, UFC President Dana White, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who joined his campaign. As for Ukraine, Trump’s thesis about his desire to end wars in the world was the most significant.
What Ukraine should prepare for, how Europe perceived Donald Trump’s victory, and why Putin is in no hurry to congratulate Trump on his victory
“We have achieved the most incredible political victory in history. The country has never seen such a victory. I’m grateful to the American people for the honor of being elected your 47th president and your 45th president,” Trump said during a speech to his supporters in Palm Beach, Florida.
Trump promised to give Americans the opportunity to “take back real control of the country” and tackle the national debt and tax cuts. He also expressed confidence in the significant oil reserves in the United States.
“We have more of this liquid gold than Russia and Saudi Arabia,” Donald Trump said
New prospects for Ukraine
Sergiy Yagodzinsky, Vice-Rector of the European University, Doctor of Science and Professor, in an exclusive commentary for Kommersant Ukrainian, emphasized that Donald Trump’s return to the US political arena was a landmark moment for Ukraine.
“As soon as Donald Trump announced his return to politics, the agenda in Ukrainian media and politics changed. The concepts of peace, ceasefire, and the possibility of negotiations, which were previously taboo, have once again become a topic of discussion,” says Sergiy Yahodzinsky
According to the professor, although Donald Trump has great international influence, his main responsibility remains the interests of the United States. However, the very fact of his return is encouraging.
“In any case, new hope is better than the suffering we have been going through all these years. I am in favor of giving us a new chance for peace,” Jagodzinski summarized.
Could Trump call Putin?
If Donald Trump wins the U.S. presidential election, his first call to Russian President Putin may take place as early as November 6. CNBC made this prediction on the eve of the vote. They say that this could be the beginning of the expected negotiations on the war in Ukraine, which are likely to begin in early 2025.
Tim Willoughby-Wilsey, a senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, expressed concern.
“The upcoming US presidential election is a point of maximum danger for Ukraine. A Trump victory could lead to a call to Putin as early as November 6. Any such call would signal a desire to resolve the conflict through negotiations,” Tim Willoughby-Wilsey
Willoughby-Wilsey added that under any such agreement, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is unlikely to be able to achieve the return of the occupied Crimea and Donbas or to obtain reparations for the damage caused to his country. In addition, a negotiated settlement may make it impossible to bring Russian officials to justice for war crimes.
Instead, Serhiy Yahodzinsky believes that Trump’s return could become a kind of “frontier” for Ukraine’s new prospects for peace, although he added that no quick results should be expected.
“We cannot demand that Donald Trump end the war in 24 hours. It is unrealistic. We must demand an end to the war from those who promised it to the Ukrainian people and received a mandate,” Serhiy Yahodzinsky
Republican mono-majority in the Senate: what does it mean for Ukraine?
Republicans have won a majority in the Senate. Current House Speaker Mike Johnson won the support of voters in Louisiana’s 4th District, securing his seat in the next House of Representatives. This strengthens the position of the Republican Party, which, according to preliminary election results, is also gaining a majority in the US Senate.
“America has given us an unprecedented mandate. We have regained control of the Senate,” Donald Trump said.
The strengthening of the Republicans in Congress creates new political challenges for the current administration and may affect the adoption of key decisions in the field of US domestic and foreign policy.
Moreover, on the day of the election, Bloomberg called control of the House of Representatives the Democrats’ “last hope” in the fight for Congress, which they obviously lost. Democrats gaining control of the House could be a deterrent to the foreign policy of Donald Trump, who declared his victory in the election and adheres to the “America First” approach. And for Ukraine, it could be a hope for continued support from Washington, the publication writes.
In an interview for the YouTube platform “News Factory”, the Chairman of the Board of the Institute of World Policy Victor Shlinchak outlined the main challenges for Ukraine in connection with the start of the new US Congress.
“Congress will start working before Trump’s inauguration. This poses a number of challenges for us, as the US budget for next year has not yet been approved, and therefore, it does not define the parameters of assistance to Ukraine. These decisions will be the basis for judging the attitude of the Republicans to support our country,” emphasized Victor Shlinchak.
Mr. Shlinchak also commented on a possible return to the Ukraine’s landmark legislation.
“Two years ago, a special draft law on land-lease was voted for. This means that Ukraine can receive certain types of weapons on a lease or on a deferred payment basis, as it was during World War II. But now it is important for lobbyists to work actively in this direction, adapting their approach to the new realities,” said Shlinchak.
In addition to economic and military aspects, Shlinchak emphasized the importance of strengthening Ukraine’s diplomatic presence in Washington. He recalled Speaker Mike Johnson’s recent letter in which he recommended recalling the head of Ukraine’s diplomatic mission to the United States, Oksana Markarova. It is worth focusing on building a strong diplomatic team that understands the peculiarities of communicating with Americans, Shlinchak summarized.
2.5 months after Trump’s victory, Europe will be shaken
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban became the first EU leader to congratulate Donald Trump on his victory in the US election, calling it “the greatest comeback in the history of American politics.” Orban also said that the election results raise the question of Europe’s readiness to support Ukraine on its own and encourage the EU to revise its strategy.
Former Secretary of the Polish delegation to the NATO Parliament, Piotr Kulpa, in an exclusive interview for
“The next two and a half months are the last moment when the forces that acted against Ukraine and led to this war are still trying to weaken the situation in the international arena. They will try to use this time to influence Trump’s decisions and reduce his role in supporting Ukraine,” said Kulpa.
According to Kulpa, there will be attempts to create the impression that the situation in Ukraine is much worse than it really is.
“There will be active reports of problems with mobilization, corruption, which can undermine the faith and morale of the Ukrainian people,” warns Kulpa.
In addition, the expert predicts an increase in massive strikes against Ukraine.
“This is the last moment when Putin can use the accumulated missiles, although much depends on Trump’s position. Moscow will try not to take steps that could anger him,” Kulpa said.
Another risk Kulpa names is the activation of supporters of old political strategies in Europe, in particular those who seek to return the old policy of peace agreements, as it was in the days of Angela Merkel. This could put additional pressure on Kyiv, and it is important not to fall for propaganda and maintain unity in Europe, Kulpa said.
“There are no signals that Trump is ready to leave Ukraine, but there is a possibility that he will try to freeze the conflict. It will all depend on the resilience of the spirit in Europe,” says Kulpa.
So, Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election not only changed the political landscape of the United States, but also opened up new opportunities and risks for Ukraine. On the one hand, Trump’s return gives hope for new opportunities for peace talks, but on the other hand, it could mean a freeze in the war without achieving important results for Kyiv. The strengthening of the Republicans in the Senate and the possibility of influencing US foreign policy call into question future support for Ukraine and further strategy in the face of global challenges.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
