Trade wars: markets are almost bearish, oil hits 4-year low
9 April 09:41
The new US tariffs came into effect today, April 9, causing new fever on the stock exchanges and markets. Over the past few days, stock indices have plummeted to multi-year lows, oil prices have plummeted, and economists are warning of a global recession. The imposed tariffs, including the harshest 104% duty on Chinese goods, have already resulted in a loss of almost $6 trillion in the US stock market in just four days, Komersant ukrainskyi reports.
Markets are headed for bearish territory
Global financial markets are in deep crisis after US President Donald Trump imposed “reciprocal” tariffs on goods from dozens of countries. The most devastating blow was suffered by China, which was hit with duties of 104%.
The S&P 500 index has lost nearly $6 trillion since Trump announced the new tariffs a week ago. This is the deepest four-day drop since the index was created in the 1950s. The market is approaching bearish territory – a 20% drop from its last high.
The selloff in most Asian markets continued today, with Japan’s Nikkei down 3%, the South Korean currency hitting a 16-year low, and government bonds suffering significant losses. Futures on European and American stocks point to further deterioration. Chinese stocks are holding steady only thanks to government support.
Oil is the cheapest in 4 years
Oil prices fell to their lowest level in more than four years due to concerns about declining demand amid an escalating tariff war between the US and China and the prospect of supply growth.
Brent futures lost 3.79% today, falling to $60.44 per barrel, while US WTI crude oil fell 4.13% to $57.12. Both contracts hit their lowest level since February 2021.
The six-month spread for Brent fell to 79 cents, the lowest since mid-November, signaling a possible oversupply in the market. This figure has fallen 86% from a high of $5.69 on January 15.
The fall in oil prices intensified after OPEC’s decision last week to increase production in May by 411,000 barrels per day, which analysts say could lead to an oversupply in the market.
Goldman Sachs now predicts that Brent and WTI could fall to $62 and $58 per barrel by December 2025 and to $55 and $51 per barrel by December 2026.
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Attempts to reach a deal
President Trump has been sending mixed signals to investors about whether tariffs will remain in place for the long term, calling them “permanent” but also boasting that they are forcing other leaders to ask for negotiations.
“They kiss my ass trying to make a deal… ‘Please, please, sir, let’s make a deal, I’ll do anything'”,
– is how Trump characterized his contacts with the world at an event at the White House on Tuesday, according to CNN. He expects China to be eager to reach a deal as well.
The Trump administration has already scheduled talks with South Korea and Japan, close allies and important trading partners. Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni is scheduled to visit the United States next week.
The deputy prime minister of Vietnam, an Asian low-cost manufacturing center that has been hit with some of the highest tariffs in the world, is to hold talks with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Wednesday.
China, however, vowed not to give in to what it called “US blackmail” after Trump threatened additional duties of 50% on Chinese goods if the country did not cancel its retaliatory duties on US products. And then received a 104% duty. China has not yet responded – its latest statement is a declaration of readiness for a trade war with the United States.
The prospect of agreements with other countries earlier on Tuesday caused stock markets to rise, but US stocks lost their gains by the end of the trading session.
Trump’s tariffs
on April 2, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of “mirror” tariffs against almost all countries of the world (except Russia, Belarus, Cuba, and the DPRK). These tariffs, according to the White House, will be half of the tariff that a particular country has imposed on US goods. For example, China allegedly imposes a 67% tariff on US goods, so the US imposed a 34% tariff on Chinese goods.
For those countries that do not impose special duties on American goods, a basic tariff of 10% was introduced.
Trump called the introduction of such trade barriers “Liberation Day” and said that this day would go down in US history as the beginning of the restoration of the American economy and greatness.
Interestingly, the comparative table released by the White House provides data on tariffs against 185 countries, but Russia is not on the list. Instead, it includes the Herd and McDonald Islands, which were subject to a basic 10% tariff. The only thing is that there is not a single person on these islands.
Escalation of the trade war between the US and China
The trade confrontation between the world’s two largest economies escalated sharply in early 2025 after Trump’s re-election. on February 1, Washington imposed a 10% tariff on all Chinese imports, accusing Beijing of “unfair trade” and manipulating the yuan exchange rate. on March 4, tariffs were raised by another 10%, bringing the total level of duties to 20%.
In response, on March 10, China announced the introduction of 15% duties on American agricultural products and 10% duties on other goods. However, this did not stop Washington: on April 2, Trump raised duties by another 34%, bringing the total level to 54%. In fact,Trump’s“spreadsheets” even included a figure of 67%.
on April 4, Beijing responded by raising its own duties by 34%. After that, the US raised tariffs to 104%
