Ukraine’s trade balance in 2025: why imports exceed exports and what’s next
6 June 21:27
In January-May 2025, Ukraine imported goods worth $31.3 billion and exported $16.9 billion. This is reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to data from the State Customs Service of Ukraine.
This picture indicates a significant trade deficit, which is twice as high as export revenues. The bulk of imports (76%) were taxed, which significantly affects budget revenues.
Tax burden on imports and its structure
Taxed imports in the first half of 2025 amounted to $23.8 billion. The tax burden per 1 kg of taxed imports amounted to $0.51. This means that every kilogram of goods imported into Ukraine is subject to customs duties of more than half a dollar.
This level of taxation ensures stable revenues to the state budget, especially given that over five months, customs payments on certain categories of goods alone exceeded UAH 189 billion.
Major trading partners of Ukraine
In January-May 2025, the leading exporting countries to Ukraine were:
- China – $6.5 billion
- Poland – $2.9 billion;
- Germany – $2.6 billion.
In terms of exports, Ukraine sold the most goods to Poland ($2 billion), Turkey ($1.4 billion), and Italy ($1 billion). This geography demonstrates strong trade ties with Europe, which is a key area of economic development for the country.
Import structure: main categories of goods
Three main categories accounted for 68% of total imports:
Machinery, equipment and vehicles – $11.9 billion. They form the largest share of imports, and customs payments from this group to the budget amounted to UAH 75.6 billion, which corresponds to 29% of all customs revenues.
Chemical products – $5.2 billion, with customs payments of UAH 41.0 billion (15% of customs revenues).
Fuel and energy products – $4 billion, which brought UAH 72.6 billion to the budget (27% of customs payments).
This confirms the importance of these sectors for the Ukrainian economy and budget system.
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Ukraine’s exports: what we sell and where
In the first five months of 2025, the main export categories were as follows:
- Foodstuffs – $9.7 billion, which indicates a strong agricultural component of the Ukrainian economy.
- Metals and metal products – $1.9 billion.
- Machinery, equipment and transport – $1.5 billion.
At the same time, during this period, the budget received UAH 121.6 million in export customs clearance with export duties, an indicator that has not yet had a significant impact on overall revenues.
Ukraine continues to maintain a significant trade deficit, with imports significantly exceeding exports. At the same time, the high tax burden on imported goods helps to stabilize the budget, especially in the machine-building, chemical, and fuel and energy sectors.
Ukraine’s main trading partners – China, Poland, and Germany for imports, and Poland, Turkey, and Italy for exports – form the geographic profile of foreign trade, which reflects a focus on the European market and Asia.
However, in order to achieve greater economic stability, Ukraine needs to reduce its dependence on imports, increase its export potential, and develop domestic production. This is especially important in the context of global economic instability.
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