Policy

The Economist: elections in Ukraine may be held in spring 2025

Elections in Ukraine could be held as early as 2025. The earliest date is May 25. This was reported by The Economist, according to Komersant ukrainskyi

“There are currently two dates on the lips of Kyiv politicians: january 20, 2025, the date of Trump’s inauguration, the first moment for any possible ceasefire and lifting of martial law, and May 25, the earliest election date being discussed,” the article says.

The President’s Office denies any preparations for the election. Most of the publication’s sources are skeptical that the vote will take place. There are questions about the organization and legitimacy of the process: how a divided nation at war can hold elections. In addition, the country has yet to survive a difficult winter.

“It would be suicidal to participate in the election campaign now,” said MP Yaroslav Zheleznyak.

Difficulty of supporting Zelensky among voters

Nevertheless, some preparatory work seems to have begun, the authors write. Regional election headquarters are being mobilized, and work is underway on candidate lists. Representatives of “one of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s likely competitors” in the presidential election say that Ukraine needs elections, but “they are afraid to make public statements about this for fear of a harsh reaction from the Presidential Office.”

“If elections were held tomorrow, it would be difficult for Zelensky to repeat the success of the landslide victory he won in 2019. Almost three years after the Russian invasion, he is no longer seen as the unquestioned military leader he once was,” the article says.

An internal poll seen by The Economist suggests that the incumbent president will have poor chances of defeating Valeriy Zaluzhnyi in the second round. The former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, who is now ambassador to the UK, has not yet made his political ambitions clear, although many are calling for him to run.

The president has better chances when he is pitted against other opposition figures.

Potential scenarios for Zelenskyy

One of the interlocutors suggested that the best move for Zelenskyy would be to refuse to run:

“Zelenskyy has only one way out to get out with his reputation intact. This is to hold the election [without him] and go down in history as the person who united the nation during the war.”

However, if Zelenskyy decides to run, there is a risk that his personal image could suffer in the event of further military complications or unpopular peace agreements.

International situation: challenges under the new US administration

As US President-elect Donald Trump takes office, Ukraine is preparing for change. There are now fears that Trump’s offer to Ukraine will resemble something similar to the ideas put forward by his future Vice President J.D. Vance.

They essentially rule out NATO membership, while allowing Russia to maintain control over 18% of Ukraine’s territory, which is currently under occupation.

“Despite all the talk in Kyiv and other capitals about the end of the war, most of those who spend time on the front line realize that many battles are still ahead. The initiative belongs to Vladimir Putin, and it is unlikely that he will offer a truce until several battles are resolved,” the publication states.

Prospects at the front: the war continues

At the same time, fighting continues at the front, and, as analysts emphasize, peace may be far from being achieved.

Kyiv and Western capitals are actively discussing ways to end the war, but military experts say that Putin is unlikely to offer a truce until he has gained tactical advantages on the battlefield.

The newspaper notes that in Kurakhove, Russian forces outnumber Ukrainian forces by at least six to one, and a Ukrainian retreat seems inevitable in the near future.

The deteriorating situation on the front line is already worrying the public. Military chaplain Dmytro Povorotnyi said that the army censors the most negative news to avoid “fanning the flames at home.” A senior military official agrees. It is noted that even Zelensky is not being told the truth.

“It’s not even that he’s being kept in a warm bath. He is being kept in a sauna,” the source said.

Elections in Ukraine

Ukraine’s elections were supposed to take place in March 2024, but with martial law imposed across the country, the vote was postponed indefinitely.

There were many discussions about the likelihood of the elections taking place. At the time, the authorities emphasized that it was impossible to hold elections, including because hundreds of thousands of citizens were at the front and could not vote.

However, in September 2024, it became known that the Central Election Commission had resumed the work of the State Voter Register in terms of recording permanent polling stations. The CEC then explained that this is a regular planned work that is carried out on a regular basis, and this does not mean that elections will be held in the near future.