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Biden’s Urgent Meeting and Shoigu’s Visit to Iran: Is the World on the Threshold of World War III?

ЕКСКЛЮЗИВ

On 5 August, the US President gathered his national security team and scheduled a conversation with the King of Jordan. All this is amid fears that Iran will attack Israel. According to The New York Times, Iran has turned to Russia for help in the context of a possible large-scale war. It asked for modern air defence systems and radars. At the same time, on 5 August, former Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu arrived in Iran to meet with the country’s new President Massoud Peseshkian and the commander of the Iranian Armed Forces, Brigadier General Mohammad Bagheri.

Komersant ukrainskyi has discussed with military historian Vasily Pavlov whether the new possible war can be called the beginning of World War III.

If everyone recognises that the Third World War has begun, then we must act. According to Vasyl Pavlov, this means that the United States, in particular, needs to withdraw all its 7 fleets and launch a serious industrial programme. The military historian is inclined to believe that World War III is absolutely unnecessary on a global scale because the international community is not ready for it.

“A world war would have to be fought on a global scale, with the question of oceans and air dominance. And here, even in the axis of evil, things are not as good as they seem. North Korea, which everyone likes to scare, does not even have strategic aviation to gain dominance over even a single theatre of operations. It has no aircraft carriers, no submarines,”

– says Vasyl Pavlov

Iran also has no modern air force or navy, the historian adds. What it does have is unlikely to leave the Persian Gulf.

Thewar on the territory of Ukraine is also part of a hypothetical World War III, says Vasyl Pavlov. Because no world power, except Russia, is directly involved in the fighting in Ukraine. Likewise, if hostilities break out in the Middle East, most countries in the world will try to reduce it to a Middle East conflict, the military historian is sure. They have been doing this more or less successfully since 1948.

Russia’s role in a potential World War III

Vasily Pavlov doubts whether Russia will agree to join Iran and declare itself an ally. After all, Russia’s position will be to solve only its own problems.

“It is beneficial for Russia to escalate the Middle East conflict so that in its flames the fire on the territory of Ukraine seems like a small fire. The Russian Federation will make it sound like World War III and scare people with these events, like Zhukov, to try to win over the pacifist part of society to its side and make them believe that they need to negotiate with Russia.”

Vasyl Pavlov

Moreover, everyone sees the possibilities of the “third” army of the world on the battlefield in Ukraine. Therefore, it is unlikely that a cowardly aggressor country will publicly declare that it is entering World War III.

Hybrid World War III

A hybrid World War III may be less obvious. It may be more dispersed than traditional conflicts, but it is no less dangerous. Countries, including China, use many tools to achieve their strategic goals, making the current world order more complex and unpredictable. Obviously, we are already witnessing a hybrid World War III, which includes information warfare, cyberwarfare, economic sanctions, proxy forces, etc.

Author: Anastasia Fedor