Without giving permission for Western weapons to strike deep into Russia, Western leaders have instead stepped up their calls for support for Ukraine’s energy sector in the run-up to winter. A number of representatives of Ukraine’s international and foreign partners have made such statements, and Komersant ukrainskyi
tried to find out how sincere they are in their desire to help Ukraine, and whether it is possible to help us in the current situation.
Well, it would seem that the words are true…
The day before, the US Department of State published a statement by the G7 foreign ministers in which they reiterated their unwavering support for Ukraine and called on the international community to help the Ukrainian energy sector.
“We welcome further commitments of funding and in-kind support to address the most urgent needs of the Ukrainian energy sector, including the repair of damaged power plants and district heating systems, the deployment of new distributed power generation, emergency backup power for critical services, and passive protection of energy infrastructure. We call on the international community to urgently step up its efforts in this direction and provide Ukraine with all the necessary assistance,” the statement said,
– the statement reads. The call to the international community is clearly visible here, but the sentence about commitments no longer looks so clear. For example, it is not clear whose further commitments are welcome.
Instead, the G7 ministers did not forget to emphasise the need for further reforms in the Ukrainian energy sector.
“We emphasise the importance of implementing energy sector reforms in line with the EU accession path and fulfilling commitments under the Energy Community Treaty, including OECD-compliant corporate governance standards. This is especially important in the run-up to winter, given the scale of repairs and the need for new energy infrastructure,”
– the ministers said. The emphasis on reforms of corporate governance standards is obviously a hint at the manual management of Ukrenergo, which is not very welcome by our partners.
The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, called for support for Ukraine.
“We must support Ukraine not only by providing military capabilities, but also by providing electricity generation capacity. Otherwise, this country will face very difficult times in the winter,” Borrell said,
– Borrell said.
It is worth noting that although leaders of Western countries and institutions often voice calls to help Ukraine with an unclear addressee, the “world”, the matter is nevertheless progressing, and Ukraine is gradually receiving, or at least should receive, much-needed assistance in the energy sector.
From words to actions
In particular, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has demonstrated a more active position, having recently visited Kyiv, and energy was one of the key issues of her visit. She even has a specific strategy for helping Ukraine, which consists of three points:
- repairing and rebuilding what has been destroyed;
- importing electricity to Ukraine from the EU;
- stabilisation and decentralisation of Ukraine’s energy system, which involves a strategic reorientation towards renewable and decentralised energy.
Von der Leyen backs up her words with actions – the other day she announced that the EU would provide Ukraine with €160 million for energy recovery.
European Commissioner for Energy Kadri Simson outlined her 6 points to save the Ukrainian energy sector.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, in his latest statement on the topic, focused on past achievements rather than aid plans, noting that the US has already invested $1.8bn in the Ukrainian energy sector.
“These funds are important, but what really matters is that they are put to practical use and help our Ukrainian friends get through the months ahead. That’s why our countries are working together every day to give Ukraine what it needs to get through the winter,”
– he said.
By “our countries”, Blinken was also referring to other Western governments. For example, Dutch Foreign Minister Kaspar Veldkamp announced that Ukraine would receive €209 million to restore critical infrastructure. And Ukraine will receive $19.5 million from Denmark.
The Prime Minister of Japan, Fumio Kishida, also expressed his support, and during his meeting with President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy, he even mentioned specifics: generators and other power equipment that Japan is preparing to hand over to Ukraine soon.
So, we can say that right now, over the past week, this topic has been actively discussed by Western politicians and in the media, but can we expect any progress in this direction?
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Is the help real?
According to Von der Leyen, right now an entire thermal power plant is being dismantled in Lithuania to be transported to Ukraine in parts. Such news is, of course, heartwarming and evokes nothing but gratitude. However, Ukraine’s energy problems are so big that they will take years to solve. According to Prime Minister Shmyhal, Ukraine has lost 9GW of power generation, and this figure simply cannot be made up by winter. Perhaps even by the next winter.
And the Russians are obviously not going to sit idle either, and the shelling of the Ukrainian energy sector will certainly be repeated. In these circumstances, the question arises as to whether it is possible to help Ukraine in terms of rebuilding its energy infrastructure How tangible and meaningful is this assistance? Or are we doomed to a cold and dark winter, despite any help from abroad?
Energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko in an exclusive commentary
“Other countries also provide equipment, and quite a lot of it. First of all, heat supply systems, cogeneration units, then gas-piston power plants, various other equipment, transformers, switches, etc.”
– he says.
According to political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko, there are many second-hand components in Europe, including even nuclear power plant components. All this can be easily brought to Ukraine and quickly connected here.
But Ukraine would not be itself if there were no fly in the ointment in this story – the possible corruption component.
“There is one very egregious story: more than a year ago, USAID handed over about 100 gas generating stations to Ukraine. And the vast majority of them have not been prepared, installed and connected. And USAID allocated an additional UAH 36 million to connect them… That is, judging by the behaviour of the Ministry of Energy officials and the Minister, it seems that the Ministry is not interested in any cogeneration. Instead, they seem to be trying to keep the monopoly on the redistribution of electricity, the monopoly on generation, so that groups close to the government can enrich themselves in some way,”
– says Tsybulko
To be precise, according to the USAID Energy Security Project, as of early July, only 18 of the 91 cogeneration units transferred to the regions had been connected. And this is quite a significant help, as these units are collectively able to provide heat for 1 million residents of apartment buildings and, in addition, provide backup power for key communal and social facilities.
For example, Poltavateploenergo received three such plants from USAID with a total capacity of up to 4 MW, but in July the company did not have enough money to install them. And according to local press reports from a week ago (we’re talking about mid-September) , “one is currently being installed, and the other two are at the preparatory stage.” In other words, in two and a half months, Poltava has made little progress in this case.
It seems that there are too many such stories, and this is a problem. But we can definitely say that help is coming, it is tangible, and we should continue to knock on all doors to keep this process going. Even the critical political scientist Volodymyr Tsybulko agrees with this.
What to do?
In the meantime, we, of course, have to do our part – rebuild the lost generation, restore distribution capacities and engage in energy decentralisation.
“We need to create a reserve, backup equipment in case of damage to what can be hit by racist missiles,”
– volodymyr Omelchenko emphasises, but it is clear that there are problems even with the main equipment, not to mention the backup.
According to energy expert Serhiy Dyachenko, rebuilding what has been virtually destroyed costs approximately $1.5-1.7 billion per 1 GW of installed capacity. That is, the $1.8 billion invested in the Ukrainian energy sector by the United States, according to Blinken, provided (or could have provided) 1 gigawatt of capacity. And 9 gigawatts have been lost. This means that we are talking about tens and tens of billions of dollars.
That is why DTEK’s advice to rely on ourselves is really honest, no matter how annoying it is. And there are communities in Ukraine that are doing just that – relying on themselves and preparing to provide themselves with their own energy. At least as a backup and at least for critical facilities.
“Many local authorities are finding mechanisms to purchase cogeneration – gas turbine plants. For example, Khmelnytsky has already fully provided itself with its own energy. There are other cities as well. There are small towns that have also made sure that critical infrastructure has a backup power supply,”
– says Volodymyr Tsybulko and adds that the war is also breaking the monopoly on the energy market of certain financial and industrial groups.
More global work is also underway.
“For example, DTEK is talking about building new wind power generation facilities. They see it as additional generating equipment that can be used to generate electricity in winter. But I haven’t heard how much it is planned to build,”
– says
Another half a gigawatt or so, he says, could be generated by increasing the capacity of imported electricity transmission. Currently, the import capacity is 17,429 MWh, but it is quite possible to increase it by winter.
And, of course, to repair, repair and repair.
Current situation in the Ukrainian energy sector
on 29 March 2024, Russia resumed its attacks on the Ukrainian energy sector, carrying out the most massive shelling in the entire period of the full-scale war. In particular, DniproHES and other Ukrainian energy facilities were hit. Since then, Russia has been regularly shelling Ukrainian energy infrastructure.
For example, the Russians destroyed the Trypillia and Zmiiv thermal power plants, causing Centrenergo to lose 100% of its generation. Also, 5 of DTEK’s 6 thermal power plants were severely damaged.
After that, power outages began again in Ukraine, Ukrenergo introduced blackout schedules and the government raised electricity tariffs by 60% at once.
At the same time, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to build two new units at the Khmelnytsky NPP and has already received the approval of the relevant parliamentary committee. The Razumkov Centre has criticised these plans, but some experts believe that only traitors or scoundrels are against the construction of nuclear power plants today.
Russia launched another massive attack on the Ukrainian energy sector on 26 August. This time, they attacked the distribution and electricity supply systems, and also hit the Kyiv hydroelectric power station.
Some experts believe that the blackouts could last until spring. The National Security and Defence Council’s Centre for Countering Disinformation recently voiced a worst-case scenario that envisages blackouts of up to 20 hours a day.
However, to summarise the above, we can conclude that apocalyptic forecasts may not come true – there are chances for a more or less normal winter, and they are not bad. Help from Ukraine’s partners and friends is coming and will continue to come, the state and local authorities are working within the country, there are very significant private initiatives, etc. All we need to do is work responsibly and honestly, do our job, restore generation, and generally prepare for winter at all levels – from the state to our own homes.