The injection rate is good, but there is not enough gas: will there be enough heat in winter
4 June 16:00
ANALYSIS
The dynamics are positive, but the result is not obvious. This is how we can characterize the process of filling Ukrainian underground gas storage facilities (UGS) with natural gas.
Since April 17, the start of this year’s injection season, more than 1 billion cubic meters of natural gas have been pumped into the UGS facilities. The injection rates are also encouraging – in May 2025, they were significantly better than in the same period last year.
What is needed to maintain the encouraging dynamics and provide the country with heat in winter – "Komersant Ukrainian" found out.
How much gas should Ukraine stockpile
Last year, 12.92 billion cubic meters of gas were accumulated in Ukrainian underground storage facilities by November 1 (the start of the withdrawal season). In order to reach this figure this year, Ukraine needs to pump more than 6.4 billion cubic meters of gas into the storage facilities in June-October. Part of the needs will be covered by domestic production. However, the rest of the gas will need to be imported. According to the ExPro agency, in order to reach the level of last year, Ukraine needs to import 2.8-3.8 billion cubic meters of natural gas in June-October.
But, according to Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI,” it is necessary to pump in larger volumes of gas. After all, it is worth considering that the last heating season depleted to an unacceptably low level those gas reserves in the UGS facilities that were the transitional remnants of previous heating seasons, and on which, in fact, Ukraine had been holding on for the previous two winters.
For example, according to the ExPro agency, at least 13-13.5 billion cubic meters need to be pumped into underground storage facilities to ensure a more reliable passage of the next heating season, which will require larger volumes of gas imports from Europe.
How much gas is already in underground storage facilities
Compared to last year, the gas reserves in underground storage facilities are now about 2.5 billion cubic meters or 27% lower. However, if we talk about the dynamics of gas injection, in particular in May, the volume of filling the UGS facilities is higher. Mykhailo Svyshcho, an analyst at ExPro Agency, points out that as of the beginning of June, almost 6.8 billion cubic meters were already in Ukrainian gas storage facilities.
“During this May, 1.1 billion cubic meters were pumped in, and last year’s May result was 750 million cubic meters, which means that 350 million cubic meters more gas was pumped in May this year. In May, the highest daily volume was 47 million cubic meters, on May 24-25. In April, on the 30th, it was 35 million. That is, in May, there was an increase in gas injection, and this is due to both a decrease in gas consumption in May, in particular due to warm weather, and an increase in gas imports to the country,”
– the expert notes.
Mykhailo Svyshcho also explains that out of May’s 1.1 billion cubic meters, most of it is domestically produced gas – about 600 million cubic meters. And almost 500 million cubic meters are imported.
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Where and how much gas is imported from
The increase in gas injection into underground storage facilities is primarily due to the increase in gas imports to Ukraine. And now all imported gas is used to replenish the storage facilities.
According to Mykhailo Svyshcho, in May, most of the gas was imported from Hungary – 275 million cubic meters, which is more than half of all imports. According to the expert, gas also comes from Poland and Slovakia.
“If we talk about the capacity of gas pipelines, it is enough to meet the needs of Ukraine. And we do not use even half of the transit capacity. We can physically import 5.2 million cubic meters from Europe per day: from Poland, 9.8 million from Hungary, and 42 million from Slovakia. In other words, we can import 57 million cubic meters of gas per day through our western neighbors. But it should be borne in mind that the Slovak route, although the most powerful in terms of capacity, is also more expensive,”
– explains the expert.
Ukraine has a new “Vertical Gas Corridor”
“The Vertical Corridor is an initiative of European gas transportation system operators that is supposed to increase gas transportation from the South to the North, i.e. from Greece through Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova and Ukraine. According to Mykhailo Svyshcho, this route is being actively promoted, but there is also a problem with the cost of transportation.
“It is higher than in the case of Hungary and Poland, and somewhere on par with Slovakia. The possible volume there is 3 million cubic meters per day. That is, it will not have any significant impact on the situation, but this direction can be useful given that it can import LNG gas, for example, from the United States,”
– explains the expert.
In addition, according to Mr. Svyshcho, the GTS operators of Ukraine, Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria and Greece have initiated the ROUT1 product with tariffs reduced by 25%. Approval of such tariffs by the regulators of these countries will allow Ukraine to intensify gas imports from the Trans-Balkan route.
Where to get money for gas purchases
At the end of May, Naftogaz Group announced that it had held talks with representatives of international financial institutions, including the IMF and the European Investment Bank. The goal of the dialog is to attract additional funding. Following the talks, Naftogaz Group CEO Serhiy Koretsky said that significant progress had been made.
At the end of April, Naftogaz also announced that it had attracted a EUR 270 million loan from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development and a EUR 140 million grant from the Norwegian government. And, accordingly, to use this funding for the urgent purchase of 1 billion cubic meters of gas.
But foreign financial assistance alone will not be enough. Domestic resources will have to be found to purchase gas. Of course, the government, as a shareholder in Naftogaz, can find a way to support Ukraine’s main gas supplier. The Parliament will probably lend a hand as well. But the state budget, as they say, is not made of rubber.
According to Mykhailo Gonchar, president of the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI,” two things may be important in this context.
“First, we are talking about resolving the problem of non-payments to Naftogaz itself. The state should try to ensure that the debt to Naftogaz is at least partially repaid. We are talking about those to whom Naftogaz generously provided resources in the past. These include utilities, regional gas companies, etc. And here we again recall that the utilities – these are city authorities, territorial communities, primarily in large cities – have the funds to build, for example, a glass bus stop, but do not have enough money to pay heat and gas suppliers. They say that later, according to bad practice, the state will write off the debts through the parliament. But this needs to stop,”
– mykhailo Honchar is convinced.
He also mentions another financing option that can be used quickly.
“I mean the “stash” that Energoatom made for the absolutely unacceptable idea of purchasing Bulgarian nuclear reactors for Khmelnytsky NPP Units 3 and 4. This idea did not materialize, but the money remained. And at the governmental level, it may be decided that, given the current situation with winter preparation and the fact that the problem of gas supply is a matter of energy security of the country as a whole, it is appropriate to reorient these funds and direct them to what is needed most now,”
– the expert notes.
Mykhailo Gonchar believes that it will not be possible to find a single option that would solve everything, and therefore it is necessary to combine both external financing and internal resources.
Summary
So, although the current rate of gas injection gives grounds for cautious optimism, the challenges remain significant – technical, financial, and strategic. In order to secure gas supplies for the heating season, Ukraine needs not only to increase imports and domestic production, but also to secure stable financing and maintain the current momentum until the fall.
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