The US stops military support for Ukraine: full report of the consequences from ISW
5 March 10:07
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have analyzed in detail US President Donald Trump’ s decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine. According to their conclusions, this decision could have serious consequences for the Ukrainian front, Komersant ukrainskyi reports.
ISW experts claim that the United States has stopped supplying critical weapons, including artillery ammunition, armored vehicles, Patriot anti-aircraft systems, and HIMARS multiple launch rocket systems. These systems are of unique importance, and only the United States could provide them.
The Institute’s experts are confident that a complete collapse of the front will not happen in the near future. However, they warn of critical deadlines: artillery shells could run out in May or June, and missiles for Patriot systems could run out in a matter of weeks. The situation with air defense is particularly dangerous, as without these systems, Ukrainian cities become virtually defenseless against Russian missile strikes.
“A Ukrainian official…warned that Patriot air defense missiles could run out “in a matter of weeks”…The shortage and possible unavailability of Patriot missiles is likely to have a serious impact on the security of Ukraine’s critical, industrial and civilian infrastructure, as Ukraine’s other allies do not have a similar system that could defend against Russian missile attacks, including those involving ballistic missiles,”
– analysts write.
On the positive side, according to ISW, Ukraine is actively working to increase its own defense production. The analysts praise the country’s prospects for self-sufficiency. Ukraine currently produces 33% of the required weapons and plans to reach 50% by the end of 2025.
At the same time, experts note that Russia is definitely trying to use the situation to its advantage. In their opinion, Putin is waging war using extremely costly methods, rejecting any terms of a truce except for Ukraine’s complete surrender. Russian troops continue nightly missile attacks and are trying to gradually “push back” Ukrainian forces on the front line.
However, Ukraine is able to hold out, at least for a while, without American weapons, analysts say.
“Suspension of aid by the Trump administration will have a detrimental effect on Ukraine’s ability to defend itself and conduct offensive operations at the current pace, but it will not completely destroy the front in the coming months,”
– iSW wrote.
President Zelenskiy, meanwhile, has taken a constructive stance. He has expressed his readiness to start peace talks immediately, to propose a partial ceasefire and a prisoner exchange. European partners are also showing support, with the ReArm Europe plan providing for about €650 billion in defense spending.
In conclusion, ISW analysts emphasize that despite the serious challenges posed by the suspension of U.S. assistance, Ukraine is demonstrating incredible resilience and ability to adapt to new conditions. The support of European partners, the growth of its own defense production, and diplomatic efforts give hope for overcoming the next challenge.
Trump’s position on Ukraine
During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly stated that he would stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. This deadline has already passed.
Also during the election, the media spread the so-called “Trump Plan”. The plan was that the United States would use its influence to stop the war, taking into account the status quo. To do this, Trump would force Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table. If Putin does not agree to negotiate, the United States will give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the United States will completely stop helping Ukraine.
This plan, in its various variations, included a provision that Russia would retain the territories it temporarily occupied and that Ukraine would not join NATO.
However, later Trump seemed to “forget” about this plan. In particular, he voiced scenarios in which he would force Russia to capitulate due to the decline in world oil prices.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, one of his advisors, Brian Lanza, said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. Trump’s entourage, however, was quick to deny this statement and said that Lanza could not speak on his behalf.
Currently, the US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is talking about 100 days within which he wants to reach some kind of agreement. Of these, 44 days have already passed. During this time, the US Presidential Administration has established contact with the Kremlin, an American envoy has traveled to Moscow, and top-level negotiators have met in Saudi Arabia and Istanbul. Ukraine was not present at these meetings.
Meanwhile, in exchange for military support, US President Donald Trump demanded $500 billion worth of rare earth metals from Ukraine. He said that the US should have access to Ukraine’s natural resources, regardless of whether Kyiv manages to reach a peace agreement with Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasizes that in exchange for this agreement, the Ukrainian side is not given any security guarantees.
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Negotiations in Riyadh and Istanbul
on February 18, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Russian Assistant Prime Minister Yuri Ushakov meet in Saudi Arabia with an American delegation, represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Volz, and Special Envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff.
After the talks, the US State Department reported that the delegations agreed to “eliminate irritants” in bilateral relations and continue to work on preparing talks on Russia’s war against Ukraine.
The two sides also agreed to appoint high-level groups for further talks on Ukraine.
Jackie Heinrich, a Fox News correspondent at the White House, reported that the United States and Russia are discussing a three-stage peace plan for Ukraine, which consists of the following stages
- A ceasefire.
- Holding elections in Ukraine.
- Conclusion of a peace agreement.
on February 27, negotiations between the Americans and Russians continued in Istanbul. According to the Russian side, they discussed the normalization of diplomatic relations. The Kremlin also allegedly demanded the return of 6 properties that were seized from Russians in the United States during 2016-2018, and also proposed to resume air travel.
Trump’s proposals to Putin
According to inaccurate information from former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul(he used the word “allegedly”), Trump offered Putin (McFaul’s wording is retained)
- ukrainian territory;
- ukraine’s non-membership in NATO;
- no American soldiers in Ukraine;
- withdrawal of American soldiers from Europe, including from frontline countries;
- easing of sanctions.
Putin, according to McFaul, has not offered anything yet.
