US warns Putin of tougher sanctions if he does not make peace
19 May 07:56
The United States of America, along with Europe, will “not hesitate” to increase sanctions against the Russian Federation if Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin does not conduct peace talks with Ukraine “in good faith.” This was stated by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in an interview with CBS News, "Komersant Ukrainian" reports
According to him, President Donald Trump has made this very clear.
Now, according to Bessent, we need to see what happens when both sides sit down at the negotiating table.
“What I can tell you is that sanctions were very ineffective during the Joe Biden administration. They kept them low because they were afraid that it would push up domestic oil prices,” he said.
As a reminder, the US Congress has already prepared a bill on new sanctions against Russia. It was supported by more than 70 senators. The restrictions may be aimed primarily at the Russian Central Bank or the “shadow fleet” that transports most of Russia’s oil abroad.
What will happen to Russia?
It is well known that Russia is critically dependent on the export of its energy resources. First of all, on oil exports. In 2024, the federal budget revenues from oil sales amounted to 9.19 trillion rubles (approximately $89.4 billion). Total budget revenues for this period amounted to 36.71 trillion rubles. Thus, the share of oil revenues in the total structure of Russian budget revenues in 2024 was approximately 25%
This indicates that, despite international sanctions and attempts to diversify revenue sources, oil remains a key source of financing for the Russian budget.
Russian Urals oil is traditionally sold at a lower price than Brent and WTI, and it is also subject to additional factors that raw materials from other countries do not experience, namely Western sanctions. However, during all three years of the full-scale war with Ukraine, Russia has been successfully selling its oil – its main buyers today are China and India.
The federal budget of the Russian Federation for 2025 included an oil price of $70. Meanwhile, due to the collapse in the global oil market caused by Donald Trump ‘s trade war and OPEC’s decision to further increase production, the price of Russian Urals oil, according to the Ministry of Finance, was $59.77 per barrel on May 13.
So far, market analysts’ forecasts do not promise Russia any serious problems related to the price of oil, as it still has a very large backlash for sales. According to economic expert Oleg Pendzin, even a price of $50 per barrel is still acceptable for Russia.
“Currently, the direct cost of Russian oil production is about $37-38 per barrel. This is the direct cost. The critical figure for Russia is the sales price of $45,”
– the economist explained exclusively for .
So the more likely way to hurt Russia over oil is still to increase sanctions, including secondary sanctions against its buyers. The point of this step is to make it physically impossible for Russia to sell large volumes of oil and thus receive funds to continue its aggressive war of aggression.
However, back during his election campaign, after making statements about ending the war in 24 hours or 100 days, Donald Trump made a very realistic statement. He said that in order for Russia to lose the ability to fight, it would be enough to simply collapse oil prices. And he seems to be going to do that if Russia does not make concessions. Whether Trump realizes it or not, this is exactly the scenario that is happening now.
The Russian economy is already slowing down significantly at current oil prices, the industry is stagnating, and recession looks like a very real prospect.
And if Trump succeeds in getting his way and lowering the price of oil, say, to $45, the price of Russian Urals will drop to around $40. This is expected to trigger a chain reaction in the Russian economy and cause a number of structural problems that will make it more difficult to finance the Russian war machine.
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