Policy

Attempt number two: Orban wants to ask Hungarians about Ukraine again

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that his government will conduct a consultation poll among Hungarians on their attitude to Ukraine’s accession to the EU. He made this statement to journalists after an emergency summit of EU leaders in Brussels, where Hungary was the only country that refused to approve a joint statement in support of Ukraine. This was reported by Politico, according to Komersant ukrainskyi.

Similar polls in Hungary have been conducted by mail since 2010 and are called national consultations. They cover a variety of issues, from migration to LGBTQ rights. The questions in such surveys are formulated in an encouraging way, and the vast majority of expected answers are in line with the government’s position. Thus, the opposition has long considered such polls a means of propaganda.

Hungarians have been asked about Ukraine before

“Ukrainian issues” appeared in a consultative survey at the end of 2023, and they again concerned Ukraine’s membership in the EU, military aid, financial assistance, and imports of Ukrainian agricultural products.

Traditionally, for such commissioned polls, the result was almost unanimous. For example, on the question of joint EU-Ukraine arms supplies, 99.32% of respondents allegedly chose the option of “ceasefire and peace instead of arms supplies.” 99% of the respondents opposed Ukraine’s accession to the EU, and the same number spoke out against the import of Ukrainian grain.

Why does the Hungarian government conduct such polls?

It is worth recalling that these polls are not legally binding. In addition, less than 20 percent of the adult population of the country usually participate in them by mail. However, those who respond clearly agree with the government’s position.

And this becomes an argument for the Hungarian government. These polls strengthen Hungary’s position at the European level by demonstrating a supposed “national consensus” on political issues.

In other words, Prime Minister Viktor Orban wants to get confirmation and “legitimization” of his policy before Brussels. Moreover, he is usually alone at EU summits.

The last EU summit confirmed Orban’s political loneliness

At an emergency summit on Thursday in Brussels, Viktor Orban did not support the EU’s attempts to replace the United States in supporting Ukraine. The other 26 EU leaders took this step without Hungary.

“To achieve “peace through strength”, Ukraine must be in the strongest position with its own strong military and defense capabilities as an important component. The European Union remains committed, in coordination with like-minded partners and allies, to provide enhanced political, financial, economic, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine and its people,” the joint statement reads.

But this summit again pointed to the difficulties the EU has in forming a consistent position on Putin, and in the long run, probably Trump as well.

Earlier in the day, Kaja Kallas, the EU’s high representative for foreign policy, told reporters that leaders were considering creating a “coalition of the willing so that one country cannot block all others.”

However, a “coalition of the willing” is not a universal recipe. For example, the implementation of sanctions and other key measures at the EU level will still require unanimity, which opens the way for further confrontations and showdowns with Viktor Orban.

What to do with Orban

A year ago, the European Parliament already called on the European Council, which includes the leaders of all EU member states, to determine whether Hungary has committed “serious and persistent violations of EU values” in accordance with Article 7.2 of the EU Treaty. An affirmative answer to this question provides for the possibility of suspending certain rights, including voting rights in the EU Council, for a state that has repeatedly violated EU values.

However, in order to activate the procedure, a unanimous decision of 26 leaders of the member states is required, i.e., consensus minus one (except for Hungary, which would be included in such a procedure).

And two days ago, this idea was once again floated by MEPs. Representatives of the Volt party called for Hungary’s voting rights in the European Union to be revoked because of its blocking of joint decisions. They sent a nine-point plan to European leaders.

According to Politico, the document calls on EU leaders to strip Hungary of its voting rights, make Kaja Kallas a full-fledged EU foreign minister, create a common European army, and revise EU treaties to include new defense competencies and prepare for the bloc’s expansion.