How many peacekeepers are needed to stabilize Ukraine: experts give figures (video)
17 February 22:05
Up to 200,000 peacekeepers are needed to ensure the stability of the demarcation line in Ukraine. This figure was voiced by Maria Zolkina, a political expert from the Democratic Initiatives Foundation, on Radio Liberty, Komersant ukrainskyi reports.
“In Europe, there is no such number of armed forces that would allow sending the same 200 thousand to Ukraine, which Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke about. Given the experience of international conflict resolution, in order for the demarcation line of such a length as in Ukraine to be stable, the initial figure of 200 thousand, which frightened European partners, is close to reality,” Zolkina said.
The expert pointed out that despite the fact that after 2014 Ukraine did not officially ask for or promote the idea of peacekeepers in Donbas, experts still developed such a scenario. At that time, it was said that 30 to 40 thousand peacekeepers were needed for the then existing demarcation line, which was several times smaller than the one we see now.
According to Zolkina, the European countries with the largest armies could hypothetically send a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine. These are Germany, France and Poland. This is especially true of official Warsaw, which has rapidly “built up” its army over the past few years and increased the number of troops from 100,000 to more than two hundred. Moreover, Poland plans not to stop there in the foreseeable future.
“It is Poland that will face a more than serious choice: how to send a significant part of its army on an international mission to Ukraine, if NATO is not likely to stand up for Polish territory in the event of aggression (against official Warsaw – ed.),” Zolkina emphasized.
Thus, she emphasized that even countries that have the necessary resources will not be ready to make a political decision and separate 30 or 50 thousand troops to send to Ukraine.
It is worth noting that the issue of the required number of peacekeepers to stabilize the demarcation line in Ukraine is the subject of active discussions among world leaders and military experts. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has stated that at least 200,000 peacekeepers from European countries are needed to ensure reliable deterrence and prevent further aggression by Russia. He emphasized that a smaller contingent would not be able to effectively fulfill the tasks.
However, the deployment of such a large peacekeeping contingent is fraught with serious logistical and organizational difficulties. Military analysts point out that maintaining a permanent presence of 200,000 peacekeepers would require a total force of 600,000 troops, taking into account the need for rotation and rest of the personnel. This calls into question the ability of European countries to provide such a large-scale operation on their own without the participation of the United States.
The United Kingdom has expressed its willingness to contribute by offering to send about 20,000 soldiers to the peacekeeping force. However, without significant support from other European states and possibly international partners, the formation of the necessary contingent remains unlikely. In addition, some countries, such as Germany, consider the discussion of sending peacekeepers premature, pointing to the need to reach a peace agreement first.
An alternative approach would be to deploy a UN peacekeeping mission. However, such operations usually require the consent of all permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia, which may complicate the adoption of a resolution. In addition, the neutral nature of the UN forces and their limited mandates to use force may reduce their effectiveness in an ongoing conflict.
Overall, the exact number of peacekeepers needed to stabilize the contact line in Ukraine depends on many factors, including the nature of the peace agreement reached, the level of cooperation between the parties to the conflict, and the willingness of the international community to provide the necessary resources. Without a clear plan and commitments from the key parties to the conflict and their allies, the realization of such a mission remains uncertain.
