How much money will Ukraine receive in 2025 and what will it be enough for: NBU forecast
8 November 14:17
The National Bank of Ukraine expects Ukraine to receive $38.4 billion in external financing in 2025. This is stated in the NBU’s inflation report for October 2025, according to Komersant ukrainskyi
“…international support for Ukraine will remain significant. Taking into account the expected receipts, the NBU has improved its assumptions for external financial assistance for 2024-2026. The total amount of international financing is expected to reach USD 41.5 billion this year, and USD 38.4 billion next year. This year, the total amount of international financing is expected to reach USD 41.5 billion, and USD 38.4 billion next year. THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF INTERNATIONAL FINANCING IS EXPECTED TO REACH USD 41.5 BILLION THIS YEAR AND USD 38.4 BILLION NEXT YEAR”
– the report says.
International support remains an important factor for Ukraine’s economic stability, the NBU says. Thus, in October 2024, Ukraine received another tranche of financial assistance in the amount of USD 1.1 billion from the International Monetary Fund, allocated as a result of the fifth review of the Extended Fund Facility program. In addition, Canada provided concessional financing in the amount of $300 million. More than $15 billion is expected to be received by the end of the year, including through the SPUR program with the World Bank.
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The NBU also reminds that Ukraine’s partners are close to making a decision on a non-repayable loan, which could reach USD 50 billion. This financing will be provided by the proceeds of frozen Russian assets, which will be used to support the Ukrainian economy.
The National Bank claims that these funds can be used to finance the budget without printing money, i.e. without provoking inflation.
“Continued external support, together with sufficient domestic market borrowing, will allow the government to continue to cover the significant budget deficit without resorting to emission financing,”
– the NBU said in its report.
Ukraine Facility
One of the mechanisms of external financing for Ukraine is the Ukraine Facility approved by the European Union in February this year. This is a €50 billion financing program for Ukraine for the period of 2024-2027. It consists of €17 billion in grants and €33 billion in loans. The mechanism provides not only for financing budgetary areas in Ukraine during the war, but also for programs aimed at implementing the reforms on which Ukraine’s accession to the EU depends.
The EU’s support should be directed in three areas:
- Financial support for Ukraine to implement reforms and investments, as well as to maintain the country’s macro-financial stability, as envisaged in the Ukraine Plan to be developed by the Ukrainian government.
- Ukraine’s investment framework to mobilize investment and expand access to finance.
- Assistance on the path to European integration to mobilize technical expertise and build capacity.
