How much gas is left in Ukraine and whether we should worry

30 January 12:56

As the end of the heating season approaches, the level of occupancy of Ukraine’s underground gas storage facilities (UGS) is gradually decreasing. According to the latest data, the reserves are approaching 10% of the total capacity, which may limit the daily withdrawal to 60 million cubic meters. At the same time, the Naftogaz press service assures that the situation is under control, and the country has the necessary resources to get through the winter in a stable manner. Is there really no reason to be concerned? What do experts say about the current state of gas reserves, Komersant ukrainskyi analyzed.

Serhiy Makohon, the former head of the Ukrainian GTS Operator, said that the level of occupancy of Ukraine’s underground gas storage facilities is approaching 10%, when the design capacity of gas withdrawal drops to 60 million cubic meters per day.

“Such minimum gas reserves in our UGS facilities have probably never been seen before (see figure). The slogan of the heads of Naftogaz and the Ministry of Energy “We don’t need imports and we will get through the winter without them!” can cost us very much. Our UGSFs are gradually but surely approaching the 10% level of fullness, when the design gas withdrawal capacity will drop to 60 million m3 per day (see the official UGS curve in the figure). This will mean that we will not be able to meet the demand for gas through production and UGS facilities, and we will need to urgently import gas,” he wrote.

According to Makohon, the average gas consumption in the country is currently 110 million cubic meters per day. At the same time, 52 million cubic meters per day are produced, and the rest should be provided by UGS facilities and/or imports.

“But if there are frosts, consumption may increase to 140-150 million cubic meters per day, and storage facilities will no longer be able to supply 90-100 million cubic meters in design modes. Therefore, imports will be needed in significant volumes and at any price,” the former CEO added.

According to him, starting in February, Naftogaz of Ukraine plans to start importing gas. In the summer of 2024, the company could buy gas for imports at $300-350 per 1 thousand cubic meters, and now it will buy at about $500-550.

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“At the same time, Naftogaz spent more than UAH 13 billion on purchasing gas from private producers, which meant that there was no more gas in the UGS facilities, but simply a change of ownership. This money could have been used to buy 800-900 million cubic meters of imported gas in the summer. These volumes would be of great help to Ukraine right now,” summarized Makohon.

The press service of Naftogaz reported that the company has sufficient gas reserves to ensure a stable heating season.

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“All the Group’s enterprises are operating in the normal mode, ensuring the production, storage and supply of natural gas to all categories of consumers,” the statement said.

Roman Chumak, CEO of Naftogaz Group, noted that the company is monitoring the situation with gas reserves.

“We control the situation with gas reserves. They will be enough for a stable heating season. Comfort and warmth in the homes of Ukrainians is the main priority of our work. Naftogaz Group also imports fuel, so we have to be prepared for all challenges in the war,” he summarized.

Amid discussions about Ukraine’s gas reserves and possible risks to the end of the heating season, energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev explained the real situation in a commentary to [ comersant ]. According to him, gas imports are indeed planned, but this is not a reason for panic, but rather a planned measure to maintain strategic reserves.

“The fact that they will import gas? Yes. They will. As a matter of fact, Naftogaz has long been provided with the appropriate funds to form strategic gas reserves. These documents were signed back in the fall of 24,” the expert said.

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Gas reserves: will they last until the end of the season?

Ryabtsev notes that the current gas reserves are enough to complete the heating season at the current air temperature.

“If we talk about the current reserves, they are enough to complete the heating season at the current air temperature. If the temperature drops to minus five and below and continues for several weeks, we need to have certain reserves for this case,” he emphasized.

In addition, he said that in the fall of 2024, Naftogaz received the appropriate funds to form strategic reserves, and the relevant documents were signed.

“Some companies, in particular DTEK and Ukrtransgaz, have already purchased certain volumes of gas. If I’m not mistaken, the total amount is about 200 million cubic meters. I think that if necessary, these reserves can be increased,” the energy expert said.

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Are the storage facilities really almost empty?

In connection with the concerns among the population about the level of occupancy of underground storage facilities, the expert refuted these fears.

“Can we say that the storage facilities are almost empty or not? No, we cannot. Because the storage facilities are needed to be emptied during the heating season. It is clear that they have much less gas now than they did at the beginning of the season,” he explained.

However, Mr. Ryabtsev noted that Naftogaz management may have questions about the gas storage plan.

“Of course, we can raise certain questions to the former management of Naftogaz, who were promoted, and ask these questions to other managers. Because the plans to accumulate gas that was heated before the start of the heating season were not fulfilled,” the expert noted.

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Остафійчук Ярослав
Editor