Despite the Kremlin’s attempts to hide the consequences of the failed test of a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile, satellite imagery of Russia’s Plesetsk cosmodrome is clear evidence of Russia’s failure. 
What we know
Between 20 and 22 September 2024, a missile was probably launched from a mine launcher. According to OSINT analysts, the launch was unsuccessful and ended in such a large-scale explosion that only a crater remained on the site of the launch pad.
“More than 58 storage facilities and numerous open areas were reduced to ash or severely damaged,” OSINT analyst MT Anderson
In addition, the loading and unloading areas of the railway were affected. The OSINT researcher believes that there were trains with ammunition there at the time of the strike.
What the failed test means for Russia
The explosion of the intercontinental missile at the start of the test is definitely a disaster for Russia. The previous similar episode took place half a century ago. It was an explosion during the first test launch of the R-16 intercontinental ballistic missile at the Baikonur Cosmodrome in 1960.
The Russian Federation has had a dozen failed tests. In 2019, during the testing of the Sarmat missile, problems were recorded that led to the launch being stopped. Other cases are related to Topol and RS-20 missiles, when control systems or mechanics malfunctioned during tests.
Most importantly, today’s collapse of the Russian Federation will slow down all future nuclear tests. Aviation expert Konstantin Krivolap in an exclusive commentary
“The launcher was destroyed, the missile exploded in the mine, so Russia will not be able to repeat this soon. Most likely, it will take a year or two. This is a complicated procedure, including the involvement of a large number of people and resources,” Konstantin Krivolap
Why Putin was not invited to the test
The aviation expert draws attention to another interesting detail.
It is known that Putin has repeatedly attended military exercises and demonstrations that included nuclear weapons demonstrations. For example, in 2017, during the Zapad-2017 exercise and other similar manoeuvres, Putin observed the testing of various types of weapons, including nuclear elements. But the Russian dictator has only been to the Sarmat tests once.
“Putin was almost never invited to the Sarmat tests. All tests took place without his presence. Despite the fact that the dictator loves such events,” Konstantin Krivolap
Perhaps the developers understand that there is nothing to show for it.
What kind of missile was tested in Russia
Today we are talking about the Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile, which is based on the Satan SS-18, says in an exclusive interview
The Satan was later replaced by the R-36M-2 Voyevoda, with a different guidance system and engine, which was serviced in Ukraine. The latest modification of this missile, the R-36M2, can carry ten 750 kt warheads and has a range of approximately 11,000 km. According to the Guinness Book of World Records, Voyevoda is the heaviest missile in the world, weighing as much as the most famous symbol of American democracy, the Statue of Liberty (over 200 tonnes).
“Given that the Southern Machine-Building Plant stopped servicing the Voyevoda with the start of the full-scale invasion, the Russians took up their Sarmat,” Roman Svitan
On the basis of the Voyevoda missile, the Russians have launched a large-scale project of a more powerful missile. However, the engine remains from the Voyevoda, which cannot be modernised, notes Roman Svitan.
“There were 7 launches, once the rocket flew off and they still can’t find it. Therefore, on the 7th launch and the 6th explosion, it is clear that the missile is ‘raw’. It will take 10 years and dozens more explosions and tests to bring it into working order,” Roman Svitan
So, today we can clearly say that the Russians do not have ballistic missiles with a range of up to 18,000 km. Or will they? Yes, this option should not be ruled out, says Svitan. Eventually, Russia will improve its nuclear missile.
How much money is Russia willing to spend on nuclear development
The first design work on Sarmat began in the 2010s. Despite the recovery of the Russian economy after the financial crisis, a lot of money was invested, and the prototype Voyevoda missile was developed by the end of 2014. The then Commander of the Strategic Missile Forces, Sergei Karakayev, said that the Sarmat would replace the Voyevoda in missile divisions near Orenburg and Krasnoyarsk by the end of 2018.
However, after 2014, Russia faced serious problems. Ukrainian specialists were involved in the development of the project, which became impossible after the start of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
In addition to the lack of engineers with experience in designing silo-based missiles, Putin was also faced with sanctions from Western partners after 2022. Import substitution for such global issues as the development of carriers for strategic nuclear weapons does not work.
So, apparently, 20 April 2022 was the first and only successful test of the Sarmat missile, which Putin watched.
Even Russian economists cannot predicthow much money such a project, or at least one test, would cost . Everything is classified as secret. In particular, Professor and Doctor of Economics Igor Lipsits confirmed in an exclusive commentary that it is impossible to obtain such information.
It is known that the cost of producing the RS-20 Satan missile (also known as SS-18) is estimated at millions of dollars per unit. Given the complexity and technology involved, the total cost of the programme could reach significant amounts. For example, in the 1980s, the cost of a single missile could have been around $30-40 million. Today, these figures may be different due to inflation and changes in technology.
Who can stop Russia’s nuclear tests?
It is believed that the Sarmat missile is mass-produced at the Krasnoyarsk Machine-Building Plant. The 62nd and 13th missile divisions (based in the Krasnoyarsk Territory and Orenburg Region) were the first to receive this new missile. It is impossible to verify this information by means of objective control – no changes are visible to the satellite. Is this a problem for Ukraine? Aviation expert Kostyantyn Kryvolap is sure that it is not.
“This missile does not pose a threat to Ukraine, it is of intercontinental importance, it is rather a problem for the Americans. The US should influence the production of the Sarmat”, – Kostyantyn Kryvolap
As a result, one thing is clear: Putin’s nuclear threats will be perceived with irony by the world after such a test failure. Roman Svitan notes that all the world’s intelligence agencies are aware of the deplorable situation with Russia’s nuclear weapons.
“Why does no one pay attention to Putin when he promises nuclear apocalypse? He has nothing to deliver nuclear warheads with,” Roman Svitan
Moreover, even North Korea is overtaking Russia in the nuclear race, with 37 tests conducted in 2022 alone. And according to Defense Express, the Russian Sarmat flies 5 times worse than North Korean missiles.
Author – Anastasia Fedor