“The General Staff is now really satisfied with the pace of mobilisation. They are satisfied with the number of people mobilised, which even exceeds their expectations. They hope that this trend will continue,” said Roman Kostenko, secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence from the Voice faction.
Indeed, over the past month, after the law on mobilisation came into force , the rate of conscription has increased many times over. According to Kostenko, in the month after the law was passed, “we recruited, perhaps, as much as in the last six months. In the last four months”. How many people can still be recruited and whether the demobilisation of the military, which has not yet been adopted, is possible, was investigated by
How many can be drafted in 2024
“Now the command and the military at the front say that the need for personnel for this year is 100-110 thousand people,” said MP and volunteer Ruslan Horbenko in an interview.
However, according to Yevhen Dykyi, former company commander of the Aidar battalion, the situation at the front can only improve if Ukraine calls up half a million conscripts, as the situation at the front is not getting better, so the need for conscripts is quite high.
“We would have to recruit half a million conscripts in 2-3 months, and this would immediately change the situation radically. And later, to establish a system in which 20-30 thousand conscripts would be recruited in a calm manner every month. If these two conditions are met, we could, firstly, turn the tide of the war back in our favour this autumn and gain an advantage over the enemy, and secondly, we could finally return to the issue of demobilising our defenders,” he said in an exclusive commentary
. Komersant ukrainskyi
Dykyi also agreed with Kostenko’s thesis that the General Staff is very satisfied with the pace of mobilisation over the past month.
“I confirm this. They don’t give the exact figures, I know them, but I have no right to speak. But the order of magnitude is exactly the same: in a month, we recruited somewhere around the previous six months, but to say that this is completely satisfactory is not true at all. That is, if we always had the same rate of mobilisation that we have reached this month, it would be just fine.”
– dykyi said.
So it is unknown how many people have been mobilised over the past month. On this issue, the editorial board of
What is the country’s mobilisation reserve?
As texty.org reported in early April, when the law on mobilisation had not yet come into force, there are currently about 5 million men in Ukraine who can be called up. At the same time, there are only 1.1 million men in the Armed Forces. According to very rough estimates by journalists, our losses in killed and wounded have already amounted to ≅200-300 thousand people.
There are also more than 60,000 women serving.
“During all this time, our defenders have become fewer, not more. We were actually on the verge of losing the war solely because of the disrupted mobilisation. If this pace of mobilisation (as it is now – ed.) was always there, it would be one story, there would be no need for more. But since we must first close the hole that was previously formed, that is why we still need another breakthrough in the next 3-4 months, we need to recruit much more,”
– says Yevhen Dykyi.
At the same time, in order to increase the number of conscripts, some MPs, experts and even the military are calling for lowering the mobilisation age and starting to draft from the age of 21.
“I think the age limit can be lowered to 21 years inclusive. We need an injection of fresh young minds into the Armed Forces. There are a lot of reforms in the use of weapons on the front line, including the use of first-person view FPV drones. This is what we need, and it’s not something that a new injection of ideas into the Ukrainian army can handle, but it’s obvious that we need to work with it. That is why I am in favour of lowering the age limit,”
– said the deputy commander of the 3rd Brigade. Rodion Kudryashov on the air of “Morning. Live” TV programme.
Earlier, MP Roman Lozynskyi of the Voice faction also advocated for lowering the mobilisation age, saying that lowering the draft age should not be ruled out entirely.
“We need a decision to reduce the age for participation in hostilities. And the fact that the age has now been reduced from 27 to 25, unfortunately, we have to look at it realistically. And provided that the front line remains like this, that the war continues, it is possible that this is not the last change in the age for mobilisation,” he told Liga.
To confirm this thesis, the editors of 
Despite such statements, this issue has not yet been considered under the dome.
“These are individual opinions of individual politicians. This issue was not raised or discussed at the committee,”
– iryna Friz, MP, member of the Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence, exclusively commented on the topic of lowering the mobilisation age.
Whether and when to expect demobilisation
The provision on demobilisation, which was excluded from the mobilisation draft law, may be considered in autumn. This, in particular, was reported by Roman Kostenko yesterday afternoon:
“If by the end of the summer we see that they (mobilisation rates – ed.) are maintained and increase, then it will be possible to develop and submit to the Rada a draft law on demobilisation.”
However, in the evening, MP Mariana Bezuhla, who, like Kostenko, is a member of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defence and Intelligence, said that there were no plans for demobilisation.
“This is not true. Mobilisation has increased, recruitment is also having an effect, but no demobilisation is being considered; I plan to write about what happened in the committee separately,”
– she wrote in a comment under a post by Ukrainian blogger Yevhen Prokopyshyn.
“The fact that Ms Mariana Bezuhla refutes it only means that she was not present at this working group, where the demobilisation issues were discussed. I can only confirm that indeed, an agreement was reached with representatives of the Ministry of Defence and the General Staff that the Government should submit a draft lawon dismissal from military service during martial law inOctoberif thepositive dynamics of mobilisation continues after the adoption of the new law,”
– iryna Friz summed up.
So, whether mobilisation in Ukraine will continue at the same pace as now, how many people will be called up and whether the Verkhovna Rada will finally consider the issue of demobilisation, which is of increasing concern to the military and their families, we will find out soon.
The author: Alyona Kaplina