What do Putin’s cynical statements mean: panic in the Kremlin or strategy?

29 January 13:49

Yesterday, the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin gave a short interview in which he made yet another cynical statement about ending the war. The Russian leader has traditionally tried to shift the responsibility for the aggression he has unleashed onto the West and Ukraine, declaring his readiness for negotiations, even though he is the main culprit behind the war. Komersant ukrainskyi analyzed what the Kremlin dictator’s cynical statements really mean.

Panic in the Kremlin

Political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko in an exclusive commentary Komersant ukrainskyi called these statements not just manipulative, but also evidence of a state of panic in the Kremlin.

“This is an absolutely schizophrenic statement, because Putin has violated international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty anyway. Therefore, he should already be responsible for this crime, and he decided that the world should protect him in committing further crimes,” the expert emphasized.

According to him, the Kremlin dictator has driven himself and his country into a dead end and is now just trying to buy time.

This is a state of confusion and panic. Putin has no convenient way out of the situation he has driven himself and Russia into, noted Tsybulko.

The expert believes that the Russian president wants to use possible negotiations as a way to delay time, as he realizes that the pressure on him and his regime will only increase.

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What is he hoping for? He’s just stalling for time. It is now clear that the pressure will increase. Why did he start shouting so loudly about his readiness to sit down for talks so preemptively? Because he expects that during the negotiations he will stall as long as possible, the political scientist explains.

Putin’s goal: to challenge Ukraine’s legitimacy

Political analyst Stanislav Zhelikhovsky in an exclusive commentary for [Kommersant] said that yesterday’s statements by Putin are a strategy of the Kremlin dictator aimed at delegitimizing the Ukrainian authorities, in particular, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This process has important political and international implications that could affect the future of the peaceful settlement of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia.

“Indeed, we can now observe that the Russian Federation, first of all, Putin, the dictator of this country, is doing everything possible to delegitimize the Ukrainian authorities and, especially, the President of Ukraine, who may be a signatory to the future agreement between Ukraine and Russia. And this is obvious, because it is still the most common practice for heads of state to sign such agreements, although it is not mandatory, and it is possible that there may be agreements at a different level,” says Zhelikhovsky.

Signing an agreement without Ukraine’s participation: Putin and Trump

According to the political scientist, Putin does not hide his intentions towards Ukraine. He is actively working to undermine Zelenskyy’s legitimacy, focusing on the possible signing of a peace treaty not with Ukraine, but directly with other states, including the United States.

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Zhelikhovsky notes that Putin is seeking to conclude an agreement between Russia and the United States without Ukraine’s participation:

“It seems to me that Putin would like to impose, first of all, on American President Donald Trump, the idea that an agreement can be signed at the highest level, but it is better that it is done between the president of the American state and the leader of Russia. That is, so that all these issues related to a peaceful settlement can be resolved without Ukraine’s involvement, in fact. Or Ukraine will not be fully involved,” the political scientist explains.

International implications: Trump as a mediator

Political scientist Stanislav Zhelikhovsky draws attention to Putin’s tactics: if the Ukrainian president is considered illegitimate, negotiations can be conducted with other states, bypassing Ukraine. This creates a dangerous precedent, as Russia is actually imposing on the world the idea that a future peace agreement should be concluded not with Ukraine, but with global players, in particular the United States.

According to the political scientist, this situation could lead to the fact that former US President Donald Trump could be given the role of the main mediator between the West and Russia.

“That is, if, according to Putin’s logic, the president of Ukraine is illegitimate, we need to negotiate with other states that can be either mediators or negotiators. And Trump can perform such a function, and this, of course, can have extremely negative consequences for our country, given that in this case Trump will not fully take into account the interests of Ukraine, and then he will… solve many such issues related to a peaceful settlement and all those conditions at his own discretion or in cooperation with partner countries,” the political scientist believes.

Such a step would allow Russia to withdraw from the negotiation process with Ukraine, leaving the latter as a less active participant. If Ukraine is actually removed from the negotiation process, it may mean that it will not have sufficient influence on the key terms of the peace agreement.

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“And Ukraine will be less actively involved, and this, of course, would play into the hands of the Russian dictator. That is, to impose the idea that if you really want a peace that is legitimate, a peace that will last, that is what Trump and his team members are talking about, that is what I think Putin has this approach,” the political scientist believes.

Propaganda and Putin’s internal motives

Another important aspect is the domestic political context. Putin is trying to demonstrate to his audience in Russia that his regime is internationally recognized and that they are ready to conclude important agreements with him.

“And plus, this is an element of internal Russian propaganda that we are signing agreements not with Ukraine, but with the United States, meaning, firstly, Trump recognizes Putin’s legitimacy, and there are really big questions here, and Ukraine does not recognize Putin as a legitimate ruler, given that elections were held in the territories of Ukraine occupied by Russia, in the regions of Ukraine that are under occupation. And, accordingly, this clearly undermines the legitimacy of the Russian dictator,” explains Zhelikhovsky.

Legitimacy of the Putin regime

No less important is the question of the legitimacy of Putin himself. According to Zhelikhovsky, the 2024 elections in Russia, in which Putin participated, did not meet democratic standards.

“Plus, I’m not talking about the fact that the presidential elections that took place in Russia in 2024, the so-called elections, were also deprived of freedom of choice, transparency, democracy, and, in fact, it was everything we see in other dictatorial countries,” the political scientist said.

According to Zhelikhovsky, Putin also wants to legitimize himself in the eyes of the world with such statements.

“That’s why Putin would like to legitimize himself for the international community, to show the domestic audience in Russia that they want to conclude various agreements with him. And, on top of that, he would like to delegitimize the Ukrainian authorities, especially President Zelensky,” the political scientist concludes.

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Остафійчук Ярослав
Editor