About 800,000 men in Ukraine have gone “into the shadows” to avoid mobilisation. This was reported by Dmytro Natalukha, chairman of the Verkhovna Rada’s Economic Committee, to the Financial Times. According to the MP, economic reservation, which is likely to be introduced in Ukraine, can change the situation and encourage men to leave the shadow economy, show their income and start paying taxes. Komersant ukrainskyi
spoke to economist Andriy Novak, who analysed where the figure of 800,000 men came from and whether economic booking could really reduce it.
Tax authorities, border guards and banks
According to the economist, an approximate calculation of men who decided to go “into the shadows” was made with the help of tax authorities, border guards and possibly bank data.
“This figure of about 800,000 is a combined figure from several databases. The first one is the tax office. The second indicator is the Border Guard Service: crossing the border from Ukraine by persons liable for military service or potentially liable for military service. The third source is possibly bank data, if the Security Service has managed to disclose data on the cards of persons liable for military service or potentially liable for military service during martial law,” the economist said.
Novak suggested that some information could also have been provided from local sources.
“Information could have been taken from local authorities, social services, etc. This is how the figure of 800,000 people who went into the ‘shadows’ was formed. However, I think the real figure is much higher,” the expert believes.
The impact of economic booking on leaving the “shadow”
According to Andriy Novak, the economic booking that may be introduced in Ukraine will have a positive impact on men coming out of the shadows.
“Economic reservation will reduce tension in society. It will also reduce the number of those who are conventionally called evaders. The key question here is what exactly will be the mechanism of economic reservation. Will it be affordable for employers and will it be socially fair?” said Novak.
Discussions around economic booking have been going on for months. ” Business representatives are also in favour of such booking.
Andriy Dligach, a scientist, futurologist, founder and CEO of Advanter Group and the international business community Board, said in an exclusive commentary to that economic booking could bring about UAH 200 billion in benefits through the de-shadowing of salaries.
At the same time, a number of military officers and some MPs are against it. They say it could create “another line of division in society between the rich and the poor”.
Andriy Novak also emphasises that all the controversial issues should be discussed before introducing economic reservation.
“If there is a dependence on the level of wages, it will be social injustice, especially for rural areas and small settlements, where, for example, the threshold of 35 thousand hryvnias is simply something incredible,” the expert said.
What kind of economic booking may be introduced
According to the head of the Servant of the People faction, David Arakhamia, the Verkhovna Rada is considering two models of economic booking: tax on salaries of at least UAH 35,000 and quota booking by industry.
In addition, another draft law has been registered in the Verkhovna Rada, which provides for a company to pay UAH 20,400 monthly in exchange for the opportunity to reserve one employee for mobilisation.
Despite these ideas of cost-effective reservations, the terms and conditions of implementation are still unknown, Finance Minister Sergii Marchenko said last week.
Author – Alyona Kaplina