Sergiy Mamedov: The NBU’s monetary policy in 2024 protected the economy from exhaustion
27 November 14:40
The monetary policy of the National Bank of Ukraine in 2024 was a key factor that protected the economy from collapse despite the difficult challenges posed by the war. This was stated by Serhiy Mamedov, Chairman of the Board of GLOBUS BANK and Vice President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks. According to him, thanks to a balanced strategy, the prerequisites for the country’s gradual economic development have been created, writes Komersant ukrainskyi
Mamedov noted that the reduction of the discount rate from 15% to 13% was one of the key monetary policy instruments this year. This decision helped to boost lending, which had a positive impact on economic activity. As the banker explained, interest rates on major loan programs for businesses and individuals decreased by 2-3 percentage points, and the average yield on deposits fell to 9.5-11% per annum, depending on the term of the deposit. At the same time, banks have begun to actively develop long-term deposits, which has expanded lending opportunities.
“Currently, bank deposit programs for individuals are gradually reorienting from ultra-short to long-term deposits. It is long-term deposits from 1 to 2.5 years that allow banks to more actively develop a variety of loan programs: from car loans and loans for SMEs to mortgages,” he said,
– he said.
An important achievement of monetary policy in 2024 was the lifting of major restrictions on the foreign exchange market. This, according to Mamedov, helped stabilize the situation with exchange rates, despite the rise of the US dollar by about 10%. The banker pointed out that the growth was due to rising tariffs, the effects of missile strikes on infrastructure, power outages and delays in international financial assistance.
“The growth of major currencies throughout the year did not lead to panic or excitement, as the main restrictions were lifted and the currency was no longer in short supply. Instead, the NBU’s foreign exchange interventions were aimed at achieving a balance between buyers and sellers,”
– Mamedov emphasized.
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Forecasts for 2025: inflation, key policy rate, and credit conditions
According to Serhiy Mamedov, 2025 will be an important period for laying the foundations for economic recovery.
“In the first half of next year, inflation will remain quite high (10-11% year-on-year), but we should expect a gradual decline starting from the second quarter. We assume that inflation will not exceed 7% by the end of the year,”
– said the banker.
The expert also believes that the gradual decline in inflation will allow the National Bank to cut the discount rate and the rate on three-month certificates of deposit. It is expected that in the second half of the year, the discount rate may fall to 12.8-12.6%, and by the end of 2025 it may reach 12.5%. At the same time, the interest rate on certificates of deposit may drop from 15.5% to 14%.
“The conditions for loan programs may improve somewhat, but we should not expect a rapid decline in rates. Instead, the yield on hryvnia deposits for individuals will be adjusted in line with the change in the rate on deposit certificates,”
– Mamedov explained.
According to the expert, international financial assistance will remain critical for 2025. In particular, a loan from the Group of Seven countries, which is to be repaid from Russia’s frozen assets, as well as an EU aid package of €38.27 billion, could make a significant contribution to budget financing.
“It is important for the country to maintain powerful external financial sources. After all, the economy is still heavily dependent on international financial assistance, which is mainly used to cover the budget deficit, which could reach more than UAH 1.61 trillion next year,”
– the banker noted.
In conclusion, Mammadov emphasized that monetary policy in 2025 will be adapted to the war conditions, with a focus on the development of strategic sectors of the economy and support for small and medium-sized businesses.
