“Talking about gas problems in Europe is Russia’s PSYOP”, Gennadiy Ryabtsev
2 January 15:39
OPINION
Despite statements by some media outlets about the critical gas situation in Europe, experts refute panic and point to signs of a Russian information operation. Energy expert Gennadiy Ryabtsev expressed this opinion in an exclusive commentary to Kommersant Ukrainsky.
According to Bloomberg, after gas transit through Ukraine was stopped, gas prices under contracts for the next month rose by 4.3% in the EU and amounted to €51 per megawatt-hour. This is the highest level since October 2023.
However, the expert warns against a literal understanding of this news and argues that in this situation, talking about the “depletion” of storage facilities means succumbing to manipulation. Moreover, he sees these manipulations as Russian PSYOP.
“This is Russian PSYOP. What does it mean that the storage facilities are being depleted at the highest rate? This is nonsense that does not correspond to reality,”
– the expert emphasizes.
He notes that weather conditions in Europe today do not allow us to talk about any increased level of gas consumption.
“The air temperature in Europe is now above zero on average. Therefore, only those who do not understand how the storage facilities operate, what they are for, how they function, and how quickly gas is withdrawn from these facilities can say that something is being depleted very quickly,”
– explains Ryabtsev.
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The expert is convinced that gas withdrawals from storage facilities in the EU are absolutely normal for this time of year.
“Depletion of storage facilities is when the last of the gas is pumped out of them, when 10% of the total gas remains in them instead of 85%,” Ryabtsev emphasizes.
He is convinced that in this way someone is trying to create an artificial panic around this issue:
“Today, no one is forbidding anyone to buy additional gas. There is no shortage of gas on the market, and there will definitely not be any in the near future. And when someone talks about “depletion” in these conditions, the question arises: who is this person and why is he doing this?”
Price and stock quotes
According to the expert, in order to understand the essence of the processes in the gas market, it is important to distinguish between the real price of gas and stock exchange quotations.
“The price of gas does not change, only the quotations change, i.e. an indicator that reflects the expectations of market participants regarding further price changes. These expectations are aimed at changing the volume of inflows and outflows of speculative capital to commodity markets, including the gas market. The increase in quotations means that financial speculators who play on price changes will be playing for a rise in the coming month. That’s all,”
– the expert emphasizes.
According to him, quotes can only indicate certain trends or trends that are formed over several weeks.
“If we see, for example, that natural gas prices continue to rise throughout January, then we will only be able to talk about a seasonal trend of increased consumption of natural gas in winter,”
– summarized Mr. Ryabtsev.
Therefore, according to the expert, it would be a great exaggeration to talk about a significant impact of the transit cessation on the European gas market. The European Union has long been preparing for such a decision by Ukraine and has taken all precautions to ensure that it does not cause any shocks.
