russia currently produces three times as much artillery ammunition as the United States and European countries combined, even in the long term. This could prove to be a key advantage during the expected Russian offensive in 2024. This is stated in a CNN article, according to Kommersant Ukrainian 
According to the publication, Russia produces 250,000 rounds of ammunition per month, or 3 million rounds per year. At the same time, the United States and European countries “have the capacity” to produce only 1.2 million rounds of ammunition per year for Ukraine, a senior European intelligence official told the newspaper.
The United States has set a goal of producing 100,000 artillery shells per month by the end of 2025, and even then, this requires the passage of a bill on financial assistance for Ukraine, which is not yet in place.
“What we are in now is a production war. The outcome in Ukraine depends on how much each side is willing to fight this war,”
– a senior NATO official told CNN.
Russian artillery factories are operating 24/7 in 12-hour shifts, the NATO official told the publication. About 3.5 million Russians now work in the defence sector, compared to 2-2.5 million before the full-scale war. However, this is still not enough to meet its needs, US and Western officials say. And Russia’s production capacity will peak next year.
However, it is very difficult for the West to compete with these figures. For example, last month, a German defence company announced that it plans to open an ammunition plant in Ukraine that will produce hundreds of thousands of 155 mm ammunition annually. In Germany, the same company has begun construction of a new plant that is expected to eventually produce about 200,000 artillery shells a year.
Western intelligence officials believe that neither side will be able to make significant gains in the near term, but the overall maths in the long run is in Moscow’s favour – especially if US aid does not arrive.
“If aid resumes and comes quickly, all is not lost,”
– said the anonymous source.
It is believed that Russia is currently firing about 10,000 artillery shells a day at the front, while Ukraine is firing about 2,000. However, Western intelligence officials do not expect Russia to make any major gains on the battlefield in the short term. This is especially true given that Ukraine will receive 800,000 Czech shells in the coming weeks.
Delay in funding assistance to Ukraine
Since autumn 2023, the US Congress has been unable to agree on a bill on military aid to Ukraine. President Joe Biden has proposed a national security bill worth more than $100 billion, including $61 billion to help Kyiv.
The document was not approved by Republicans, who want to include in the bill tighter border and migration measures on the US-Mexico border.
US President Joe Biden said he would not support a bill to help Israel initiated by Republicans in the House of Representatives without taking into account Ukraine’s needs.
on 13 February, the US Senate passed a bill unblocking aid to Ukraine. It provides for aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan totalling $95.34 billion, of which $61 billion is earmarked for Ukraine.
The bill now needs to be supported by the US House of Representatives, where Republicans are also refusing to vote for aid to Ukraine.
One million drones and modernising the army
In Ukraine, it is believed that one of the solutions to ensure technological superiority over the enemy is the massive use of drones. The decision to maximise state support for drone production was made in March 2023, when the government approved a resolution. Since then, the Ministry of Digital Transformation has been actively working to expand production, provide maximum support to drone manufacturers, and remove bureaucratic obstacles to the creation of UAVs. Recently, Minister Fedorov launched the People’s Drone initiative, under which every citizen can assemble a drone at home at their own expense.
In late 2023, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed confidence that Ukraine would produce one million drones for the frontline by 2024, referring to FPV drones. Minister Fedorov responded with assurances that this target would even be exceeded. Deputy Minister for Strategic Industries Hanna Hvozdyar argues that Ukraine is capable of producing significantly more than one million drones a year, and current production is already ahead of schedule.
In his last article in the Western press on the eve of his resignation as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces, Valeriy Zaluzhnyi stressed the need for a technological breakthrough in the army, with a particular focus on unmanned technologies. The Commander-in-Chief claimed that it would take only 5 months to reorient the army to unmanned systems.
After his dismissal, Supreme Commander-in-Chief Volodymyr Zelenskyy instructed the government to work on the creation of a separate type of troops in the Armed Forces – the Unmanned Systems Forces.