A year of decisive changes: will Ukraine succeed in recapturing Crimea and stopping the offensive on Dnipropetrovs’k in 2025?
31 December 12:26
ANALYSIS
2025 may be the year of liberation of the annexed Crimean peninsula. This was stated in an exclusive commentary to
Military expert Roman Svitan in an exclusive commentary
“Diplomacy can only be used to surrender, to capitulate. The Ukrainian people and the Ukrainian army will not allow our government to capitulate,”
– emphasizes Roman Svitan.
According to him, the key task for 2025 will be the liberation of Crimea.
“Next year, the main task is to liberate Crimea. 2025 will be the year of either the beginning or the end of the Crimean operation,”
– Roman Svitan said.
The operation, as the expert explains, will be launched by missile and air strikes on 150 stationary military facilities in Crimea. Our task is to destroy military facilities on the peninsula to deprive Russia of the ability to supply Crimea militarily, the expert adds. The next step is a ground operation, which will depend on the available forces and means.
“There is a scenario in which Ukrainian troops may not even enter Crimea, but only destroy military facilities with missiles and drones,”
– adds the colonel.
Liberation of Crimea as a prerequisite for victory
The liberation of Crimea will be a turning point, the expert believes. After all, once the peninsula is liberated or Russian troops are destroyed, Russia will realize that it is impossible to hold Crimea militarily. This will force them to pull back from Ukraine, Svitan predicts.
“Crimea is strategically important for Russia. If they lose Crimea, it will be pointless for them to hold Ukraine. They simply won’t be able to carry this “premium” any longer.”
Roman Svitan
Economic pressure will play a decisive role in the collapse of the Russian regime.
“The sanctions, which will not be lifted, will continue to grow stronger. This will create conditions under which the Russian economy will not be able to support hostilities by 2026,”
– says Roman Svitan.
The military man also points out the importance of sanctions against China, which is one of Russia’s main economic partners. Military and economic pressure, including on Russia’s allies, will make it possible to make 2025 a turning point. But this is not the end of the war, the retired colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is sure.
Roman Svitan notes that the end of hostilities in 2025 is unlikely.
“We still have to fight for about three years. But next year we will be able to create the preconditions for victory or even liberate Crimea,”
– summarizes Roman Svitan.
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Kursk Operation-2024: Kremlin’s shock and help from the DPRK
In 2024, the Kursk operation became a serious challenge for Putin. Fighting on Russian territory began on the morning of August 6, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine crossed the Russian-Ukrainian border near the town of Sudzha. Ukrainian troops began advancing deep into Russian territory and within a few days controlled several hundred square kilometers. This is the first Ukrainian combined arms operation on Russian border territory since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. Even after six months, Putin’s troops have not been able to regain control of their territory, and Putin could not answer the question during a direct line when part of the Kursk region would return to Russian control. The Ukrainian military, in turn, sends greetings from Suja.
Moreover, Putin even had to ask Kim Jong-un for help in the form of additional manpower. And in December 2024, the Russians threw poorly trained fighters from the DPRK into battle, who were taught to catch a drone “live” and never surrender, otherwise their families would die.
Ukrainian Defense Forces officer Yevhen “Tykhyi” in an exclusive commentary
“The Koreans probably do not pose a great threat to Ukrainian troops, in particular because of their limited knowledge of modern combat conditions. They move in small groups, which actually makes it easier for us to neutralize them. Now their number is not able to change the situation on the battlefield,”
– noted Yevhen “Tykhyi”.
He added that this also indicates that Russia has problems with manning its units, which forces them to use forces that are not capable of achieving significant results.
“Personally, if I had such resources, I would use them not on the front line, but to support the rear, because they are less effective in active combat operations,”
– Officer Tykhyi said.
He also pointed out that although the North Koreans may face great difficulties on the battlefield, their motivation may change if at least one of them is captured. Then it will become a significant information occasion for Russia and may lead to changes in the morale of these soldiers, Tikhiy summarized.
Donbas is holding on: will the enemy approach Dnipropetrovs’k region?
Tense confrontation continues in the Donetsk sector. Despite the difficult situation, Ukrainian troops are confident in their ability to hold key settlements. Soldier Yevhen Ievlev with the call sign “Sheikh” in an exclusive commentary
“The Ukrainian military is often forced to operate in conditions of a shortage of ammunition, drones and other necessary equipment. That’s why we are standing up against all odds,”
– emphasized Yevhen Ievlev.
The military also noted that the main factor of stability is the lack of Russian infantry. “The enemy puts a lot of equipment and personnel on our fields, but it is our infantry that holds the line,” Sheikh said.
The summer of 2024 was a turning point for Ukrainian defense. There was a serious crisis: lack of infantry, problems in the middle management, lack of social elevators in the command, Sheikh recalls. However, according to him, these issues are now gradually being resolved. Defense fortifications in Donetsk region have improved significantly.
“The fortifications in the areas of Pokrovsk, Myrnohrad, Chasiv Yar and Kostyantynivka are among the best I have seen, but there are cases when due to the lack of personnel the fortifications were taken over by the enemy within a day.”
Yevhen Ievlev
At the same time, on December 27, it became known that Russia had actually reached the highway from Pokrovsk to Dnipro, and DeepState stated that the Russians were 7 km away from the Dnipro region. However, Ievlev denies the rumors about the imminent breakthrough of Russian troops into Dnipropetrovs’k region:
“Fear and panic are easier to sell than rational but positive forecasts. We feel that we can hold Donbas and even more so prevent the enemy from entering Dnipropetrovs’k region,”
– summarizes Yevhen Ievlev
Fighting in the north of Kharkiv region: key events and the situation at the front
on May 10, 2024, at 04:00, the Russian Federation launched an offensive in the north of the Kharkiv region. The main directions were Liptsy and Vovchansk. The offensive was accompanied by intense artillery shelling, air strikes and the use of drones. The enemy forces captured several border settlements, including Strilecha, Krasne, Pylyna, Borysivka, and Ohirtseve. However, as of the end of 2024, all the Russians are capable of doing is stealing boats from local people and trying to cross the Oskil River near Dvorichne. Ukraine’s defense forces are holding the line and systematically repelling the occupiers’ daily assaults.
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Kherson and Zaporizhzhia in the occupier’s dreams
Since the liberation of Kherson from the invaders on November 11, 2022, Russia has not given up trying to terrorize the local population and even land on the islands in the Kherson region. However, there is currently no talk of an attack on the city of Kherson itself.
“Propagandists are scaring with an attack on Kherson, but there is no such scenario. The enemy’s main tactic is to try to land on the islands in small groups on boats. Our army is ready for such actions and gives a worthy rebuff,”
– said Andriy Kovalenko, head of the Center for Countering Disinformation at the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine.
However, the threat to Kherson still remains due to the use of drones, artillery and aviation by the Russians.
Fighting continues in the Zaporizhzhia sector, but the front line remains unchanged. However, according to the British newspaper The Economist, Ukrainian intelligence warns of the possibility of a large-scale Russian offensive on the city of Zaporizhzhia, which is 30 kilometers from the front line.
“Russia is carefully building fortifications near the city of Zaporizhzhia. Ukrainian intelligence believes the enemy is preparing for a bold offensive, although the exact date remains unknown,”
– the publication says.
The intelligence official notes that Russia could use up to 130,000 soldiers for such an operation.
Russia is preparing for a protracted war
The Russian Federation will spend a record $175.5 billion on military needs in 2025. According to the new budget, 6.31% of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) will be spent on defense spending. This funding is aimed at improving Russia’s production capabilities in the development of new weapons, ammunition and other military equipment. One of the main tasks is to expand the production of artillery shells, as the Russian Armed Forces are trying to provide themselves with a large amount of ammunition for artillery units on the front line. In addition, a significant portion of the budget will be spent on the repair and production of armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), as the loss of equipment is very significant for the Russian troops.
Significant funds will also be allocated to the production and modernization of the missile arsenal, including the Iskander missile system, as well as to increase the production of cruise missiles and new delivery vehicles.
Moreover, Russian President Putin signed a decree that increases the number of personnel in the Russian Armed Forces by 180,000. This will bring the total number of Russian troops to 2,389,130, including 1.5 million soldiers. Also, despite the DPRK troops already deployed in Kursk (about 10,000), North Korea may be preparing to deploy additional units and military equipment in Russia to support the war
“A comprehensive assessment of multiple intelligence sources indicates that North Korea is preparing to rotate or increase the deployment of troops [in Russia – ed,
– the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.
Breakthrough year 2024: Ukraine invites Russia to hell
the year 2024 was a breakthrough year for Ukraine’s defense industry. In 11 months, it managed not only to significantly increase production, but also to start mass production of modern weapons.
In early December, the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine reported that in November alone, more than 120 new models of weapons and military equipment were codified, 90% of which were completely new developments.
In 2024, the Ukrainian military-industrial complex produced more than 100 missile weapons, including Neptune cruise missiles, Sapsan/Grom-2 ballistic missiles, and other modern systems. And at the end of the year, Ukraine invited Russia to hell by presenting a missile of the same name with a range of up to 700 kilometers. According to Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the first batch of Peklo missiles has already been delivered to the troops.
So, it’s too early to talk about the end of the war, but we can say that Ukraine and the Armed Forces are ready to continue it and effectively confront the enemy in 2025.
