Restaurant market: trends in 2025 and experts’ expectations
27 December 20:18
ANALYSIS FROM 
The restaurant business in Ukraine continues to adapt to the challenges it has faced due to the war and the economic crisis. However, experts predict a turning point in 2025, when the market will begin to recover. How do coffee shops survive in the face of fierce competition, should we expect a latte for 100 UAH, and why will the restaurant business become the engine of economic recovery after the war? Read our article for expert comments and forecasts on the development of the industry.
Restaurant market: trends in 2025 and experts’ expectations
The restaurant business in Ukraine continues to adapt to the challenges it faces due to the war and the economic crisis. However, experts predict a turning point in 2025, when the market will begin to recover. How do coffee shops survive in the face of fierce competition, should we expect a latte for 100 UAH, and why will the restaurant business become the engine of economic recovery after the war? Read our article for expert comments and forecasts on the development of the industry.
About the state of the industry and prospects for 2025 in an exclusive commentary
Closure of establishments in 2024 and prospects for 2025
In 2024, about 120 restaurants and cafes closed in Kyiv, and about 50 in Lviv, Nasonova notes. At the same time, these figures, although impressive, are lower than in some previous years, such as 2015-2016, when up to 200 establishments were closed in the capital per year.
“Most of the establishments closed in 2022, when the business could not withstand the new conditions. 2023 gave some hope, as the opening of establishments partially resumed due to the expectation of the end of the war. However, 2024 was a year of unfulfilled expectations and economic depression,” Nasonova says.
The restaurant expert emphasizes that mostly either new establishments that failed to find their place in the market or those that did not update their concept and lost their competitiveness are closing. Olga Nasonova is confident that 2025 will be a turning point for the restaurant business. According to her, the business has already “hit rock bottom” and there will be no further decline.
“I believe that 2025 will be a positive year for the restaurant industry. The market will start to recover, and we will see the emergence of new interesting establishments. It will be a year of growth and new opportunities for those who stay in business and are ready to develop,” Nasonova summarizes.
Latte for 100 hryvnias: reality or exaggeration?
The coffee shop market in the capital is developing rapidly. Currently, there are about 1500 establishments specializing in coffee in Kyiv, and this number is constantly growing. However, the growth in the number of coffee shops has led to fierce competition, says restaurant expert Olga Nasonova.
“The coffee shop market is very saturated. Competition is high, especially in places where several establishments are located nearby and compete for every customer. This forces owners to set competitive prices. That’s why a latte for 100 hryvnias is the exception rather than the rule,” says Olga Nasonova.
The expert explains that only about 10% of the capital’s coffee shops can afford to set such prices. These are usually premium establishments with special offers: in-house coffee roasting, unique interiors, prestigious locations, or a special assortment.
But for most coffee shops in Kyiv, high prices for drinks can be fatal. After all, only 10-15% of the capital’s population is willing to regularly pay large sums for coffee. Instead, establishments with affordable prices are gaining popularity. These can be self-service coffee shops, small outlets in stores, or chain establishments, the expert explains.
“Today, most coffee shops offer latte for 50-60 hryvnias. This satisfies the mainstream of consumers who are looking for a quality drink at a reasonable price. It is these establishments that most often survive in the competition,” says Nasonova.
At the same time , economist Oleg Pendzin in an exclusive commentary for
“The situation on the global markets is really difficult: a pound of coffee costs $3.5 today. But this doesn’t mean that all coffee shops will raise prices sharply. You can certainly set the price of a cup of coffee at 150 hryvnias, but who will buy it?” Oleg Pendzin emphasizes.
The economist also drew attention to a common practice among producers – changing production volumes. For example, in order not to scare people with price increases, producers reduce the volume of their products. For example, we have already gotten used to the fact that a bottle of milk now contains 800 grams instead of a liter.
Robotization or optimization
According to experts, the issue of robotization of personnel in Ukraine is currently not relevant due to the high cost of technology and relatively low labor costs. According to expert Olga Nasonova, instead of introducing robots, businesses are choosing ways to optimize.
“Businesses are optimizing, which allows them to reduce staff. For example, one of the simplest methods is to reduce the menu, which requires less staff, or to buy semi-finished products. Brands offer products that greatly facilitate the cooking process and allow establishments to reduce the number of cooks,” explains Olga Nasonova.
Another popular method is to switch to self-service. However, this does not apply to the premium segment, where staff remains a key element of service, adds Nasonova.
Recovery after the war: restaurant business at the start
According to the expert, after the war is over, the restaurant business has every chance of becoming one of the fastest recovering sectors.
“It is much easier and cheaper to restore a restaurant or a coffee shop than, for example, a plant or a factory. It requires relatively little money, and within a month after the start, the establishment can be fully operational,” says Olga Nasonova.
In addition, after the war, demand for restaurants, bars and entertainment venues is expected to grow significantly. Also, establishments in shopping centers and family restaurants will gain popularity again, the expert predicts.
Thus, if the war ends in 2025, the restaurant business in Ukraine will become one of the engines of economic recovery. Its flexibility and relatively low start-up costs will allow it to quickly adapt to new conditions and meet the demand that has accumulated during the restrictions. However, as long as the full-scale war of the Russian Federation continues, regular air raids, risks of power outages and reduced attendance at establishments due to Ukrainians traveling abroad will slow down the development of this business.
Author – Anastasia Fedor
