Realpolitik instead of haste: political scientist explains why Trump’s team postponed visit to Ukraine
7 January 13:04
OPINION
Keith Kellogg, the incoming US special envoy to Ukraine and Russia from the Donald Trump administration, has postponed a planned trip to Kyiv and European capitals until after the US presidential inauguration on January 20. Komersant ukrainskyi asked political analyst Yevhen Magda what explains this step and whether there is any connection between this decision and the interview of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with American podcaster Lance Friedman, which was released the day before.
According to the expert, the two events are completely unrelated.
“I don’t see any influence of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s participation in Lex Friedman’s podcast on this decision,”
– said the political scientist.
Instead, he suggests explaining the cancellation of the visit by ordinary political calculations. According to the expert, the Trump administration will act within the framework of the Realpolitik approach, which is characterized by maximum pragmatism and a focus on power and interests, not principles or values. And from this point of view, the current Trump administration does not have enough mechanisms and capabilities to make such a visit effective.
“How could Kellogg, who has so much information activity now, come to Ukraine under the current Blinken, who has no authority yet? Why would we want to talk to him? Well, okay, in Kyiv they can’t say to him, “Who are you?” But in France, what do you think?”
– says the political scientist.
Realpolitik or not, democracy is a procedure, the expert reminds. In this context, Ukraine should deal with its own internal affairs, and not wait for help from philanthropists from overseas.
“Instead of dealing directly with the issues of strengthening our internal resilience, we expect a kindly old man or an evil young man to come and solve everything. It doesn’t work, it won’t work, and it hasn’t worked before,”
– summarizes Yevhen Magda.
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Trump’s position on Ukraine
During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that he would stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. Sometimes he suggested that this could happen even before that.
Also during the election, the media spread the so-called “Trump Plan”. The idea was that the United States would use its influence to stop the war and maintain the status quo. To do this, Trump would force Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table. If Putin does not agree to negotiate, the United States will give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the United States will completely stop helping Ukraine.
This plan, in its various variations, stipulates that Russia retains the territories it temporarily occupies and that Ukraine does not join NATO.
However, later Trump seemed to “forget” about this plan. In particular, he voiced scenarios in which he would force Russia to capitulate due to the decline in world oil prices.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, one of his advisors, Brian Lanza, said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. The president-elect’s entourage, however, was quick to deny this statement and said that Lanza could not speak for Trump.
