Putin raises the stakes: how is Russia trying to put pressure on the West and why does it need troops in Belarus?
6 February 15:22
ANALYSIS
The Kremlin is not going to stop the war and is already preparing for further provocations – Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has warned that the Kremlin leader will provoke other countries. Perhaps Poland or the Baltic states will be next. We will see that in the spring, summer, or fall, he will deploy forces in Belarus, the Ukrainian leader said. However, is the Belarusian army capable of conducting any offensive operation with the help of its Russian colleagues? Komersant ukrainskyi looked into the matter together with experts and the military.
At the moment, the Belarusian army is not capable of carrying out any operational or even tactical offensive. They simply do not have the necessary capabilities for this. More about this in an exclusive commentary
As for the participation of Russian troops in a possible offensive from the territory of Belarus, the expert also expressed skepticism.
“The Russians do not have enough forces and means even for defensive actions on their own territory, in particular in the Kursk region. We see this in their inability to control the situation even in the border regions. Therefore, we cannot talk about a large-scale offensive from the territory of Belarus yet,”
– noted Roman Svitan.
Peacekeepers on the border with Belarus: why it is critically important
Roman Svitan believes that the Kremlin’s current information statements are part of a psychological war aimed at Ukraine’s Western allies.
“The Russians are now throwing in such messages to intimidate our potential partners. Their goal is to prevent the decision to deploy international military contingents on the Ukrainian-Belarusian border,”
– explained Roman Svitan.
According to the colonel, various options for involving peacekeeping forces are currently being considered.
“There are proposals to send military contingents from the UK and France – possibly up to 40 thousand servicemen – in a peacekeeping mission. This would be the best option if they were deployed along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, which is about a thousand kilometers long. This would allow Ukraine to free up dozens of brigades that are now forced to hold this area,”
– Svitan emphasized.
The military expert also drew attention to the Kremlin‘s recent decision to change Russia’s nuclear doctrine. Now they officially allow its use even in the event of a conventional (non-nuclear) attack on the Russian-Belarusian “union” state formation. This is another element of information warfare, raising the stakes to intimidate the West, the expert explained.
Svitan emphasized that Ukraine should actively communicate with international partners and explain the real situation.
“We have to not only track these Russian fakes, but also reveal their true purpose. Our task is to prevent the Kremlin from influencing the decisions of our partners and weakening international support for Ukraine,”
– Roman Svitan summarized.
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Meanwhile, Russia continues provocations on the Belarusian direction
Ukrainian Defense Forces officer Yevhen “Tykhyi” in an exclusive commentary
“In addition to the patriotic population in the border regions of Belarus, there are many fields and rivers in northern Ukraine, and our defense is already built, and our dug-in reserves are taking their positions. The Russians have realized that they will not succeed there,”
– noted Yevhen “Tykhyi”.
At the same time, he said, the enemy continues to use this area to distract Ukrainian forces.
“In order to stretch our defense over as wide a front as possible, the Russians continue to send sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRGs). They will not change the course of the war, but they create constant tension so that we do not relax and keep our reserves there,”
– Tikhiy explained.
He also said that fierce clashes between Ukrainian and Russian subversive groups continue in the forests of Polissya.
“There is a real brutal massacre going on there. Subversive groups are constantly crossing our border. It is no longer just a state border, but a conditional line of contact between our and enemy subversive units,”
– emphasized Yevhen “Tykhyi”.
Thus, despite the disadvantage of this direction for large-scale operations, Russian forces continue to use the Belarusian border as a tool to put pressure on Ukraine and deplete its defense resources.
What is happening now on the Ukraine-Belarus border
The monitoring group Belaruski Gayun has published a chronicle of military activity in Belarus for the period from January 27 to February 2.
- Russian An-12 in Gomel
During the week, a military transport aircraft An-12 of the Russian Aerospace Forces arrived at the Gomel airport. According to preliminary data, its arrival is connected with the rotation of the Russian contingent stationed at the Belarusian airfields “Zyabrowka” and “Mozyr” (“Bokov“). - Inspection of radio systems in Machulishchi
At the Machulishchi airfield, measures were taken to test radio systems using a special airfield calibrator An-26KPA (ASLK). - Movement of Belarusian troops by rail
Active movement of units of the Armed Forces of Belarus by rail has been recorded. The transportation is likely related to combat training activities.
The military activity of Belarus, as well as the ongoing rotation of Russian troops on its territory, once again confirm that Minsk continues to provide logistical support to the Kremlin, which may affect the security situation in the region.
Let me remind you that in January 2025, the spokesperson for the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, Andriy Demchenko, spoke about the situation on the Belarusian direction and possible threats to Ukraine.
According to him, since 2022, Belarus has been conducting an information campaign aimed at accusing Ukraine of threatening their security. Under this pretext, Belarus regularly conducts military exercises and maintains a certain number of its units along the border, allegedly demonstrating the strengthening of defense. At the same time, commenting on reports of the accumulation of Belarusian troops in the border areas, Demchenko emphasized:
“Yes, there may be rotations of units, but their total number is not increasing. As of now, we do not record the creation of a strike group that could pose a threat to Ukraine. There is also no significant accumulation of equipment or personnel in the immediate vicinity of the border. The overall situation remains stable.”
Thus, despite the Kremlin’s active military rhetoric and provocative actions, there is currently no immediate threat of a new large-scale invasion from Belarus. At the same time, Moscow continues to use the Belarusian border as a lever of pressure on Ukraine and the West. Sabotage and reconnaissance groups, information fakes about possible attacks and changes in Russia’s nuclear doctrine are part of a psychological war aimed at depleting Ukrainian forces and intimidating its allies.
Ukraine, in turn, should continue to strengthen its defense in this area and actively communicate with international partners about potential threats. The deployment of a peacekeeping mission on the border could significantly reduce Russian pressure and allow Ukraine to more effectively allocate its forces.
