Policy

Ceasefire in Ukraine: What is behind Putin’s demands?

As a result of the meeting in Saudi Arabia, Ukraine agreed to the immediate introduction of a 30-day ceasefire if Russia also takes such a step.

In turn, during a conversation between the self-proclaimed president of Belarus and the Russian dictator, the latter said that the Russian side seemed to agree with the proposal to end hostilities. But he assumes that this cessation should lead to long-term peace and the elimination of the root causes of the conflict.

Military expert Dmitry Snegiryov shared his thoughts on the meeting with [Komersant ].

According to him, Putin emphasized that a ceasefire is possible only with certain guarantees.

In particular, whether Ukraine will continue to mobilize and receive weapons, how the issues of control and verification will be resolved, who will determine who has violated what along the 2,000-kilometer frontline. In addition, he emphasized that the ceasefire should not allow Ukraine to regroup or rearm, but should contribute to a lasting peace that takes into account Russia’s interests.

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has already reacted to Putin’s words by saying that the Russian side is actually preparing a refusal as of now.

The military expert recalled that the Ukrainian president has repeatedly rejected similar proposals before, emphasizing the need to maintain a strong army to ensure the country’s security.

Notably, Donald Trump expressed cautious optimism about Putin’s statements. He emphasized that Putin “made a very promising statement, but it was not complete.” He also said he was ready to talk to the Kremlin leader to ensure a ceasefire.

Thus, Putin’s demands to end mobilization in Ukraine and to stop Western military aid are a cause for serious concern for both the Ukrainian side and our strategic partners. Moreover, they make it more difficult to reach a ceasefire agreement.

The point is that agreeing to these conditions would mean a strategic defeat for Ukraine. Stopping mobilization and military aid will create conditions for strengthening Russia and weakening Ukraine, which will inevitably lead to a new offensive by the Russian army, but under much worse conditions for us.

According to military expert, reserve colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleh Zhdanov, stopping the mobilization process gives Putin a significant advantage, as it will create a serious problem for the renewal of reserves, and it will be very difficult to resume the process later, as it requires additional time, resources and political will.

In his opinion, even if a temporary ceasefire is reached, Russia will use this time to redeploy troops, amass ammunition and prepare a new offensive, which will put Ukraine at a severe disadvantage.

“I would like to note that none of the previous ceasefires, which were signed during the ATO, were observed or fulfilled by the Russian side. Therefore, the Ukrainian side has certain concerns about the readiness of the Russian Federation to fulfill the terms of the 30-day truce proposed by the United States.

Moreover, the Russian dictator’s statements about the events in the Kursk region raise questions. “What are we going to do with this area of encroachment in the Kursk region? If we stop hostilities for 30 days, does this mean that those who are there will leave without a fight? Do we have to let them out? Or will the Ukrainian leadership order them to lay down their arms and surrender? How will it be? It is not clear,” he said.

According to Dmitry Snegirev, his orders to create a so-called “sanitary zone” near the borders of the Russian Federation raise more questions. In fact, it is an expansion of the war zone at the expense of other regions of Ukraine. These are Sumy and Chernihiv regions. In other words, he is giving a clear military and political signal of readiness for further offensives on the territory of Ukraine, not only in those areas that, according to his decrees, are included in the Russian Federation, but also at the expense of other territories of Ukraine. And this is a scaling up of the theater of operations.

Such statements by the Russian dictator should be viewed solely as an element of military and political pressure on Ukraine and the United States to make the latter accept the Russian scenario for ending the war. Moreover, there is already a statement by the head of the Sumy Military District that the Russians have moved significant operational reserves to the border.

These are the external challenges for Ukraine that stand against the backdrop of the so-called “proposals” of the Russian Federation to introduce a 30-day ceasefire.

As for the proposals themselves, they are actually about the demilitarization of Ukraine. It is not only and not so much about a ban on the supply of weapons for the needs of the Ukrainian Defense Forces for 30 days. The Russian side is putting forward these demands to end the war.

“Let me remind you that Putin’s aide Ushakov recently said that the occupying country does not want a temporary truce with Ukraine, but is supposedly interested in a long-term settlement. He noted that Russia’s goal is a “long-term peaceful settlement” that should take into account the “legitimate interests” of Russia. Instead, the ceasefire, in his opinion, is nothing more than a temporary respite for the Ukrainian military, nothing more.

Thus, the 30-day ceasefire in the Russian version is a test regime,” the military expert said.

Dmytro Snegiryov added that if Ukraine and the United States swallow now and agree to a ban on arms supplies, it will be fulfillment of the Russian Federation’s demands in the future. This is what the Russian side calls the demilitarization of Ukraine. Their main demand in the future is a ban on arms supplies, training of the Ukrainian Defense Forces, and a reduction in the size of the Ukrainian army. Therefore, these proposals are like a touchstone, they should be considered exclusively from this aspect.

On the one hand, Russia will demand the demilitarization of Ukraine, but on the other hand, it will actually be making plans for the further annexation of Ukrainian territories. Therefore, we cannot agree to these conditions. This is a trap. It is a political, diplomatic, military, and information trap.

The head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirill Budanov, noted that there are all signs that Russia needs a pause in the war. According to Budanov, the war against Ukraine costs Russia about a billion dollars a day.

“They have reached the maximum of their production. 41% of the official budget is spent by Russia. We have partners in this regard, and they spend their money,” he said.

The information provided by the head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine regarding the plans of the Russian dictator is confirmed by representatives of the US intelligence. According to them, the Russian dictator is not ready for peace. He still wants to seize Ukraine. Recently, The Washington Post published classified US intelligence reports that question Putin’s readiness to end the war against Ukraine, assessing that the Russian dictator has not retreated from his goal of dominating Ukraine.

Some current and former U.S. officials have said that Putin, even if he agrees to a temporary ceasefire, will use it to rest and rearm his troops. In their view, the Russian dictator is likely to violate the terms of the agreement by creating a provocation and blaming Ukraine.

Against the backdrop of statements by representatives of the intelligence communities of Ukraine and the United States about Russia’s plans for Ukraine, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for the demilitarization of Ukraine to be prevented.

He emphasized that a strong army is the most important guarantee of security for the country.

Scholz also praised the US commitment to resume arms supplies to Ukraine. In his opinion, this way the Americans have made it clear “that the Russian president cannot simply count on victory on the battlefield, because support for Ukraine is growing.”

“Let me remind you that the United States has already clearly stated that it will fully resume arms supplies and intelligence sharing. There is already information about supplying Ukraine with precision guided bombs. The Americans will put pressure on Russia and support Ukraine even more if Putin does not agree to the ceasefire.

In addition, support for Ukraine is now backed up by economic pressure, namely the ban on the banking sector of the Russian Federation, which is under sanctions, from making payments to end consumers for Russian oil and gas. These are serious things that did not happen during Biden’s tenure,” Snegirev emphasizes.