“The NBU’s forecasts are questionable: electricity tariffs will inevitably rise” – Popenko
8 November 17:25
EXCLUSIVE
In its October inflation report, the National Bank of Ukraine predicted that utility tariffs would not be raised in 2025. However, starting in 2026, the National Bank believes that the government will begin to gradually bring tariffs to their economically justified levels. Komersant ukrainskyi asked housing and utilities expert Oleg Popenko to comment on this forecast.
In an exclusive commentary
“I am far from certain that tariffs will not rise next year. Moreover, I am deeply convinced that electricity tariffs will increase. Perhaps, gas tariffs will not be raised, but this will be related not to the issue of tariff setting, but to the issue of possible elections in Ukraine,”
– he said.
Popenko also spoke about real prices for gas and electricity, criticizing the approach of linking them to market indicators.
“Naftogaz says that prices should be market-based. But to which market should we be tied? We have the European market, where gas costs $450 per 1,000 cubic meters. But it is nonsense to be tied to the market, because we have our own production,”
– the expert emphasizes.
Popenko is far from thinking that gas tariffs are still too low and do not correspond to market prices.
“If we take into account our own production, the cost of which is about $50 per 1,000 cubic meters, even 60 during the war, then, adding all other costs, we can sell gas to the population, for example, for $150. But today we sell it for $200,”
– he said.
Follow us on Telegram: the main news in a nutshell
Regarding electricity tariffs, Popenko also emphasizes that the “European approach” or “European prices” are not necessarily expensive.
“We are constantly told that there is the EU and we need EU-like prices. Well, I’m sorry, but in the EU, each country chooses its own tariff policy. For example, in Hungary and Bulgaria, the cost of electricity is cheaper than in Ukraine or the same. In Norway, it is cheaper! But there are countries like Germany where the cost of electricity is much more expensive. Each country chooses its own way,”
– emphasizes the expert.
The situation with water in Ukraine is tragicomic, the expert believes, because in some cities water tariffs are quite “European” and the water is technical.
As Deputy Minister of Health Maryna Slobodnichenko recently said, if European standards for drinking water are set in Ukraine, it will turn out that we are not receiving drinking water, but technical water. It is noteworthy that the official who, by virtue of her position, is supposed to care about human health, lamented that in this case the government would have to recognize that the water in the taps is technical. And this would lead to lower water tariffs and, consequently, lower budget revenues.
According to Popenko, Ukrainians need not only stable tariffs, but also a transparent understanding of where their money is spent and how to improve the quality of public services. Without this, no decision on tariffs, whether it is to contain them or to raise them sharply, will solve the problem, he said.
“The issue is not the cost, but the understanding of the tariff setting issue: where our money goes, how corruption eats up all the money we pay, which is also compensated from the budget. The cost of water has increased 12 times in 10 years, and the result is zero, the cost of gas has increased 9 times, and the result is zero. There has been no modernization of district heating companies, nothing. There are only monopolists, such as Naftogaz, who enrich themselves at the expense of ordinary Ukrainians,”
– popenko summarizes.
As reported
