“Continued misery”: an economist talks about the future of vegetable prices

5 February 08:52
OPINION

The high prices for borscht vegetables in Ukraine are due to a poor harvest last year. The poor harvest resulted in imported products appearing on the Ukrainian market in the fall. These factors determine the high prices for vegetables in Ukraine, and the situation will not fundamentally change until the next harvest. This was stated by economic expert Oleg Pendzin in an exclusive commentary to Komersant ukrainskyi.

According to him, this marketing year, the total potato harvest fell by 30%.

“We harvested much less than expected of the entire borscht set. Objectively, we have to understand that in case of a sharp drop in the total harvest, prices will rise. There is no way around it,”

– said the expert.

Record early imports

Mr. Penzin emphasizes the unprecedented situation – imported potatoes first appeared on store shelves in November.

“Traditionally, vegetable imports were in April, when Turkish and Egyptian potatoes came in. These were young potatoes, which were much more expensive, but it was a premium segment for those who wanted to eat them,”

– explains the economist.

Now, according to him, the situation has changed, and imported vegetables have been on Ukrainian shelves since the fall. And it’s not about the premium segment, but about meeting the demand for which there is not enough domestic produce.

“I have been monitoring this market for quite some time. Last November, for the first time, we had imported potatoes on our shelves. November – potatoes, December – imported carrots… Potatoes from Poland and Lithuania, carrots from Poland,”

– the expert recalls.

The situation is definitely influenced by the actions of market players, the economist says. For example, the rise in price of cabbage is explained by this:

“The price of cabbage is also just terrible, especially in January, because farms are holding back their produce in anticipation of a high price. So, objectively, imports started to come in.”

Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко

When should we expect prices to drop?

High prices will last at least until late spring, Penzin predicts, that is, until early harvest vegetables begin to appear.

“At least until late spring, we shouldn’t expect prices to drop. The first arrivals from the open field will be around May. And this is assuming a good spring. If we have a bad spring, the first open field harvest will be in June,” he says,

– he notes.

According to the economist, a significant reduction in the price of vegetables is expected in June, and July is traditionally the cheapest month for vegetable products.

Climate factor and forecast

The expert says it is almost impossible to predict what will happen next fall. It is incredibly difficult to make long-term forecasts due to abnormal weather conditions.

“Look at what is happening with winter. We don’t have winter, in fact, let’s be honest. It’s either late autumn, which has dragged on, or early spring, which hasn’t started yet. So no one knows what the summer will be like,”

– states Penzin.

In this context, the expert also expressed concern about the state of winter crops.

“We have a fairly large winter wedge, and winter crops need certain ripening conditions, certain winter conditions. Traditionally, we used to keep snow on the fields to have a supply of water. And look at what we have now – it’s sprinkling from above, the ground is dry as a tree,”

– he notes.

The only thing that can be said for sure, the expert says, is that the abnormal heat in the summer will definitely lead to problems with the harvest and high prices for vegetables again.

“If we have the same abnormal heat as we had in 2024, we will have continued harvest problems and rising prices,”

– Oleg Pendzin summarized.

Читайте нас у Telegram: головні новини коротко

Остафійчук Ярослав
Editor