What will the IMF mission representatives in Kyiv discuss?
20 May 10:31
Today, May 20, a delegation of the International Monetary Fund arrived in Kyiv to hold talks with the Ukrainian authorities as part of the eighth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). This was reported by "Komersant Ukrainian" with reference to RBC-Ukraine.
The delegation is headed by Gavin Gray, as reported by Priscila Tofano, IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine.
The day before, on May 19, a preparatory meeting was held in a remote format between representatives of the National Bank of Ukraine, the Ministry of Finance, and the IMF delegation. NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyi, Minister of Finance Sergii Marchenko, and IMF Mission Chief Gavin Gray discussed the progress of the program and the mission’s work plan.
What will be discussed
The main topics for discussion will be strategies to achieve the following goals
- increasing domestic revenues
- ensuring debt sustainability;
- continuation of reforms in the financial sector;
- reducing inflation;
- further liberalization of the foreign exchange market.
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Current Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program
The IMF’s four-year program for Ukraine for 2023-2027 amounts to $15.6 billion and is part of a total international support package estimated at $148.8 billion under the baseline scenario.
In 2025, Ukraine may receive $2.7 billion from the IMF based on the results of four quarterly reviews. If the current assessment of the mission is positive, the IMF Board of Directors will decide on the next tranche in June.
Earlier this year, in March, Ukraine already received a tranche of $400 million, reduced from $900 million at the request of the Ukrainian side due to the sufficiency of funding.
The total amount of external financing for Ukraine in 2025 is $55 billion, most of which will come under the ERA Loans program, financed by frozen Russian assets.
IMF forecasts
According to the IMF’s baseline forecast, updated in March, Russia’s war against Ukraine will end at the end of 2025, and Ukraine’s economy will grow by 2-3% in 2025 and 4.5% in 2026.
The alternative negative scenario assumes that the war will continue until mid-2026, with GDP falling by 2% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, and the total financing gap widening to $162.9 billion.
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