The right to vote during martial law: are there any chances for elections in 2025?
16 April 16:29
OPINION
Holding national elections in Ukraine in 2025 remains unlikely due to a number of objective circumstances. This was stated by Andriy Mahera, former deputy chairman of the Central Election Commission and constitutional law expert at the Center of Policy and Legal Reform, in an exclusive commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian".
According to the expert, the probability of elections in 2025 is no more than 10%.
Elections and martial law: legal restrictions
According to the Constitution of Ukraine, holding elections during martial law is prohibited. This applies to both parliamentary and presidential elections. Magera emphasizes that even after the end of martial law, at least six months are needed to prepare for the election process.
“Even if we hypothetically assume that local elections, which require 50 days of electoral process, are the shortest period, there are many problems to be solved. I would say that it is more likely that they will not be held than they will be. I’m talking about the local elections,” Magera clarified.
As for the presidential election, it will take 90 days for the actual race. In addition, there is still technical preparation for the election before the election process begins. And this will take several months.
“Experts say that 6 months should be optimal, a normal transition period to prepare for the elections. But I understand that society will not give anyone these 6 months to prepare, let’s be realistic. Society will demand immediate elections, and if they give at least 2-3 months, it will be a blessing in disguise,” said the former deputy head of the Central Election Commission and constitutional law expert at the Center for Political and Legal Reforms.
Technical and organizational challenges
In addition to legal aspects, there are significant technical and organizational challenges. In particular, it is necessary to update the State Register of Voters, ensure the security of polling stations, especially in the frontline regions, and organize voting for military personnel and citizens abroad.
The expert emphasizes that organizing voting for military personnel on the front line requires the creation of special polling stations and careful planning.
International pressure and domestic readiness
Some of Ukraine’s international partners, including representatives of the United States, have expressed expectations that elections will be held by the end of 2025. However, according to Magera, such expectations do not take into account the real state of affairs in Ukraine.
“Holding elections in 2025 seems unlikely. The probability of this is no more than 10%,” he said.
Prospects for 2026
Magera believes that it is more realistic to hold elections in 2026, provided that the situation in the country stabilizes and martial law is lifted. However, even then, it will be necessary to take into account all the challenges associated with organizing the electoral process in a post-conflict environment.
“Everything can happen, because events are changing very quickly, and anything can happen. Perhaps we will not have time for elections at all in 26, or perhaps vice versa, we will plan something and have a vision. Therefore, the main thing here is to live through 2025, and we will talk about 26 next year,” the expert summarized.
Thus, the holding of national elections in Ukraine in 2025 seems unlikely due to legal, technical, and security restrictions. Preparations for the elections will require significant time and resources, as well as the end of martial law.
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