War

Return of Crimea is possible only through diplomatic means: why President Zelensky’s rhetoric has changed dramatically

ANALYSIS FROM

President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that the return of Crimea is possible only through diplomacy, not through military action. According to him, Ukraine currently does not have enough military power to return the peninsula by military means.

“We are talking about the territories that were occupied by Putin before the full-scale invasion in 2014. Legally, we do not recognize this. We do not accept it. On the other hand, we realize that we do not yet have the strength to push Putin back to the 1991 line with arms,” the president said.

In an interview with Fox News, Zelenskyy emphasized that Ukraine is not ready to lose thousands of lives to return the annexed Crimea. He noted that the peninsula could be returned through diplomatic efforts. This was in response to a journalist’s question asking whether the president was ready to give up Crimea for a peace deal to end the war and stop the bloodshed in Europe.

“We have already stated that we are ready to return Crimea through diplomatic means,” Zelenskyy reiterated his position, emphasizing that the lives of tens of thousands of people cannot be sacrificed for this.

[comersant] looked into why Zelenskyy’s rhetoric has changed dramatically and whether it is possible to reach an agreement with Russia only through diplomacy.

Former SBU officer and military analyst Ivan Stupak in an exclusive commentary for spoke about the reasons for the changes in the rhetoric of the Ukrainian authorities and the realities of the war with Russia.

“When President Zelensky’s rhetoric was very active, there was confidence that we would be helped. There were many statements that Western countries would support us and provide everything we needed. But over time, it became obvious that promises do not always coincide with reality,” explains Stupak.

According to him, many of the promised types of aid arrived late, and the amount of equipment did not meet the needs.

“The planes we were promised arrived a year late, and this is a huge problem. We need 120 planes, and we received only 10. You cannot win a war with them,” he said.

The West is finally tired of the war. Will diplomacy work on the Crimea issue?

The military analyst also drew attention to political fatigue in Western countries. According to Stupak, Germany and France are starting to get tired, and the United States does not give specific figures for aid to Ukraine for the next year.

“Last year it was $60 billion in aid. This is an important amount, but if it is not there next year, it will be very difficult for us,” the analyst said.

Ivan Stupak also shared his thoughts on the possibility of a diplomatic solution to the war with Russia, but he is skeptical. According to him, it is important to create an attractive lifestyle in the territories controlled by Ukraine.

“We have to create such conditions that people want to join us. Let’s remember how West Germans were so attractive to East Germans that they were willing to risk their lives to move,” he notes.

However, Stupak emphasizes that we should not expect quick results. According to him, we cannot return Crimea now. We do not have enough forces and resources to do so. Crimea is not strategically important for Western countries, and no one is ready to invest huge amounts of money in its restoration and return. Ivan Stupak also draws attention to an important internal problem: many Ukrainians, both in the temporarily occupied territories and in other parts of the country, may not want to unite with those citizens who supported Russian aggression.

“Look at Moldova and Transnistria: the government wants to return the territory, but many Moldovans believe that this is not necessary. It may be the same in Ukraine with Crimea,” he notes.

Thus, experts emphasize that Zelenskyy’s change in rhetoric on Crimea is the result of many factors, including the mismatch between promises of international aid and reality and the decline in resources to support Ukraine. The President recognizes that Ukraine cannot return the peninsula through military means, so he is emphasizing a diplomatic solution to this issue. According to Ivan Stupak, domestic politics and economic realities also require caution, as many Ukrainians are not ready to unite with people who supported Russian aggression. An important step is to create conditions for bringing these territories into Ukraine through political and economic mechanisms.

Author – Daryna Glushchenko