Warming won’t save us: should Ukrainians prepare for rolling blackouts?
6 March 21:24
Despite significant warming, the energy situation in Ukraine remains tense. Amid the war and ongoing attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, the risks of maintaining a stable electricity supply are not diminishing, said Yuriy Boyko, a member of the Supervisory Board of NPC Ukrenergo, Komersant ukrainskyi reports.
He emphasized that new challenges for the power system are possible in the spring.
“The situation may change in March-April. After the winter, our nuclear power plants will start scheduled repairs. And the decommissioning of a 1000 MW unit is a significant value for our power system in its current state. And I am not sure that it will be possible to replace the absence of such a power unit, let alone several of them, without any problems. This year’s hydro resource is significantly lower due to the mild and snowless winter,” said Boyko.
Factors affecting the stability of the power system
Today, Ukrainian consumers hardly ever face power outages. Restrictions are applied mainly to industrial enterprises and businesses to ensure a stable power supply for critical infrastructure and the population. However, the situation may change in March and April due to several key factors:
Scheduled repairs at nuclear power plants. In the spring, scheduled repairs of power units at nuclear power plants will begin, which is a standard practice after the heating season. However, in a time of war, even a temporary shutdown of a single 1000 MW reactor can be a serious challenge for the power system. If several units are taken out of service at the same time, it could lead to electricity shortages.
Low level of hydro resources. Usually, in spring, hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) significantly help to balance the power system, but this year the situation is complicated. The winter of 2024-2025 was warm and snowy, leading to a shortage of water in rivers. Reduced water inflow will limit the capacity of hydroelectric power plants, which will be another challenge in the face of a potential shortage of generating capacity.
Attacks on energy infrastructure. The enemy continues to attack Ukraine’s critical energy facilities in an attempt to undermine the stability of electricity supply. Restoring damaged TPPs, hydroelectric power plants and distribution networks requires significant resources, and the risks of new attacks remain high.
Possible scenarios for the situation.
According to experts, if no significant damage to the energy infrastructure occurs during the spring, the power system will be able to cope with scheduled repairs at nuclear power plants and low hydro resources. However, in the event of an escalation of attacks or accidents at generating facilities, it may be necessary to apply emergency shutdown schedules not only for industry but also for the population.
One possible option to compensate for energy losses is to import electricity from the EU. Currently, Ukraine already uses imported capacity to cover peak loads. According to NPC Ukrenergo, the available transmission capacity allows for an increase in imports, but this requires significant financial costs.
Will there be enough resources to cover the deficit?
The financial aspect remains a separate challenge. In the context of the war and the lack of funds in the state budget, ensuring the uninterrupted operation of the energy system is becoming increasingly difficult. European partners are helping to restore energy facilities, but full recovery is only possible if there is no new damage.
What should Ukrainians do?
Despite the fact that the system withstood the load in winter without long outages, experts urge Ukrainians not to relax. Saving electricity remains a key factor in the stability of the power system. Reducing the load during peak hours, using alternative energy sources, and being prepared for possible restrictions will help minimize the negative effects of a possible power shortage.
