After Trump’s victory, Ukraine prioritizes security, not territory – NYT
14 November 08:58
After Donald Trump won the US presidential election, Ukraine is reconsidering its position, realizing that the focus is now shifting to security guarantees rather than where the ceasefire line will be drawn. This is stated in the article of The New York Times, according to Komersant ukrainskyi
Security is more important than territory
According to two unnamed Ukrainian officials, with the Ukrainian Armed Forces gradually losing ground in the east, security guarantees, not the definition of territorial borders, are becoming the key factor in protecting Ukrainian interests in possible negotiations.
“Negotiations should be based on guarantees. There is nothing more important for Ukraine,”
– said Roman Kostenko, secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence.
Another Ukrainian official, who wished to remain anonymous, emphasized that the issue of territory is important, but is second in priority to security issues:
“The first issue is security guarantees.”
However, Ukraine insists that its borders should correspond to those proclaimed in 1991. Although Russia controls about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, Kyiv does not intend to officially give up these territories.
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Doubts about Russia’s readiness for a settlement
Skepticism about Russia’s readiness to comply with the agreements is deeply rooted in its previous experience with the ceasefire in 2014 and 2015. Then, despite the agreements, fighting resumed, and the conflict lasted for eight years until Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022.
Ukraine is seeking NATO membership as a guarantee against new Russian attacks. However, Western countries are not currently offering fast-track membership. Therefore, Kyiv is optimistic that the powerful arsenal of conventional weapons supplied (or to be supplied) by Western countries will be a deterrent to the resumption of hostilities.
Security guarantees, rather than territorial concessions, are likely to be the most pressing issue in peace talks. When Ukraine and Russia held peace talks in 2022, Russia rejected an agreement that included a key element of a commitment by third countries to defend Ukraine in the event of a new attack.
Ukraine’s plans and international approaches to negotiations
Ukraine presented its own settlement plan called the “Formula for Peace,” which contains 10 demands, including full withdrawal of troops, prosecution for war crimes, and reparations. Although Russia was not present at the summit, about 80 countries supported certain points, such as the exchange of prisoners, the release of civilian hostages, and safe navigation in the Black Sea.
In October, 32% of Ukrainians supported territorial concessions for peace, an increase from 19% last year, but achieving a peace favorable to Ukraine remains a challenge due to Russia’s advance on the frontline.
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Trump’s position on Ukraine
During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that he would stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his election. That time has now passed.
Also during the election, the media spread the so-called “Trump Plan”. The plan was that the United States would use its influence to stop the war, taking into account the status quo. To do this, Trump would force Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table. If Putin does not agree to negotiate, the United States will give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the United States will completely stop helping Ukraine.
This plan, in its various variations, stipulates that Russia retains the territories it temporarily occupies and that Ukraine does not join NATO.
However, later Trump seemed to “forget” about this plan. In particular, he voiced scenarios in which he would force Russia to capitulate due to the decline in world oil prices.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, one of his advisors, Brian Lanza, said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. The president-elect’s entourage, however, was quick to deny this statement and said that Lanza could not speak for Trump.
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Zelenskyy’s victory plan
The Victory Plan presented by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy to Ukraine’s Western partners contains five key points covering military, economic, and political aspects. According to the president, this set of measures should help Ukraine win the war.
The first point of the plan relates to geopolitics and provides for Ukraine’s invitation to join NATO. This will be an important signal to Russian President Vladimir Putin and a demonstration of the defeat of his geopolitical ambitions. Ukraine’s membership in the Alliance will ensure long-term peace and security in the region.
The second point focuses on defense. It is a list of weapons needed to support the Ukrainian military.
The third point concerns the deterrence of Russia. Ukraine proposes to create a non-nuclear deterrent package that can guarantee security against any threat from Russia. Zelenskyy emphasized that, realizing the possible response, Russia would rather choose negotiations than further escalation. A secret annex to this point has been passed on to the United States and other key allies.
The fourth point is about the economy. Among other things, it stipulates that Ukraine can share its natural resources, such as uranium, titanium, lithium, and others, with its allies.
Thefifth point is designed for the postwar period and provides for the participation of the Ukrainian military in ensuring security in Europe. According to it, Ukrainian soldiers can replace part of the US troops in Europe, strengthening NATO’s defense.
In the West, only such loyal Ukrainian allies as Latvia and Lithuania unconditionally supported Zelenskyy’s victory plan. Almost all of Ukraine’s key partners – the United States, Britain, Germany, and France – reacted with extreme restraint and sometimes even outright negativity.
