The pessimistic trend in relations between Ukraine and Poland will continue despite the change of president
29 May 16:19
The presidential elections in Poland in 2025 are characterized by high tension and a significant impact on the country’s domestic policy and foreign relations, including with Ukraine.
Political changes in Poland are unlikely to lead to a dramatic turnaround in Ukrainian-Polish relations. This opinion was expressed by political scientist Ruslan Bortnik in a commentary for [ komersant ].
According to him, regardless of whether Rafal Trzaskowski or another candidate becomes the new president, the course of bilateral cooperation that has already been outlined will continue. At the same time, he noted a “pessimistic trend” in relations between the two countries caused by the fatigue of Polish society, disappointment with the situation in Ukraine, and competition in European markets.
“We expected Poland to lobby more actively for our membership in the EU and NATO, as well as to provide more active assistance in the military sphere, but this did not happen,” Bortnik said.
In his opinion, the official partnership will continue, but we should no longer count on acts of political or economic sacrifice from Warsaw.
Political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko also calls the situation fragile.
He notes that Trzaskowski’s candidacy is predictable and loyal to Ukraine, as he represents the Civic Platform of Donald Tusk, a well-known friend of Ukraine. However, nationalist sentiments have increased in Poland: extreme right-wing forces, including the Confederation party, have gained about 20% of support.
“If Trzaskowski wins, the situation will settle down. His electorate is the pro-European West of Poland, which does not exacerbate historical issues in relations with Ukraine,” Tsybulko said.
At the same time, he warns that nationalists may enter the second round, and then the situation will become even more unpredictable, similar to the French scenario.
What is known about the elections in Poland?
The first round took place on May 18, 2025.
Since no candidate received more than 50% of the vote, the second round is scheduled for June 1, 2025.
The main candidates:
Rafał Trzaskowski: Mayor of Warsaw, representative of the pro-European Civic Coalition. He stands for liberal reforms, support for LGBTQ rights, and closer ties with the EU and NATO.
Karol Nawrocki: A historian supported by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. His position includes nationalist values, skepticism about further integration with the EU, and limited support for Ukraine.
Results of the first round:
Rafał Trzaskowski received 31.4% of the vote.
Karol Navrotsky – 29.5%.
Slawomir Mencen, a candidate from the far-right Confederation, received about 15% of the vote.
Impact on relations with Ukraine:
Regardless of the election results, the main directions of Polish-Ukrainian relations will remain stable.
Expectations from the second round:
Opinion polls before the second round show a slight advantage of Trzaskowski over Navrotsky. The choice between them will determine Poland’s future course in terms of domestic reforms, relations with the EU, and support for Ukraine.
