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Truce or strategic trap: military responds to who will benefit from 15-kilometer retreat at the front

The proposal of US Special Representative Keith Kellogg to create a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone along the front line has caused a flurry of outrage among the Ukrainian military and experts.

While Washington is voicing scenarios for “freezing” the war, Kyiv is reminding us that there is blood behind every meter of the gray zone.

The idea of creating a demilitarized zone between Ukraine and Russia, proposed by US Special Representative Keith Kellogg, is perceived in Ukraine not as a path to peace but as a potential trap. The military warns that this scheme has already failed in 2022, and repeating such a scenario will only benefit the enemy. Read more in the article "Komersant Ukrainian".

The US Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has proposed the creation of a temporary demilitarized zone along the front line. According to him, the war could be frozen at the current positions of the parties, and a 30-kilometer demilitarized zone could be established around the contact line, which would be patrolled by Western countries.

Kellogg argues that both Ukraine and Russia could withdraw troops 15 kilometers from the front line, creating a zone without armed confrontation. Control over compliance with the regime is proposed to be transferred to an international coalition, which allegedly includes the UK, France, Germany and about a dozen other countries.

The demilitarized zone may be a trap for Ukraine

Military expert Roman Svitan in an exclusive commentary for [Kommersant] sharply reacted to Kellogg’s idea.

“Kellogg has voiced nonsense. Let’s recall 2022, when troops were disengaged near Shchastya. As soon as the Ukrainian army withdrew, the Russians immediately occupied the gray zone and the settlement itself. And where are those people now? Under the full control of the Russian army. This ‘demilitarized zone’ became a tragedy for them,” says Svitan.

He called Kellogg’s idea a “fantasy” that has no technical basis, and also mentioned the constitutional impossibility of recognizing the temporary loss of a part of Ukrainian territory.

“Who told him that Ukraine is ready to stop the fighting and part ways with Russia, leaving 20% of its territory under occupation? The people of Ukraine and the army will not surrender. We will fight until the full restoration of territorial integrity. The military did not swear an oath to Bankova Street or the Verkhovna Rada, but to the people of Ukraine,” summarized Roman Svitan.

This may be just a formality used by the enemy

Hearing the “30-kilometer zone”, it occurred to me that this could only be the first step towards some formal negotiations. Ukrainian Defense Forces officer Yevhen “Tykhyi” told Kommersant Ukrainskyi in an exclusive commentary

“It looks more like an ‘agreement on paper,'” Mr. Tykhyi said.

He drew attention to the fact that modern means of warfare, in particular drones, already allow controlling such zones without formal disengagement.

“Drones already cover a zone of 10-20 kilometers without the presence of heavy weapons. And if there are any, they are single, camouflaged. The idea looks somehow disconnected from practice,” emphasized officer Tykhyi.

Yevhen “Tykhyi” sees the main threat in the possibility of abuse by Russia

“The Russians can take advantage of the situation again. We will comply with the terms, but they will not. They will bring their equipment closer, disguise it, prepare, and strike again. There is no trust in the Muscovites – the enemy will not leave Ukrainian land without resistance,” Yevhen “Tykhyi”.

At the same time, the officer admits that in case of a real ceasefire, even a temporary one, the number of casualties among Ukrainian military and civilians could be reduced:

“If the meat assaults stop, if the intensity of the Russian offensive decreases, there will be fewer deaths. But whether we should trust this mechanism is a big question,” summarizes Yevhen “Tykhyi”.

Thus, Kellogg’s statement is only one voice in the international discussion, but in Ukrainian society it is rather rejected. For a significant part of Ukrainians, any cessation of hostilities without the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine is not peace, but surrender.