Istanbul talks: what is known about the results of the second round
2 June 19:40
ANALYSIS FROM 
On Monday, June 2, the delegations of Ukraine and Russia met for talks at the Çiragan Palace in Istanbul, Turkey.
The talks began at 13:00 local time and lasted no more than an hour.
Before the talks with Russia, the Ukrainian delegation met with European officials. These were representatives of Germany, the UK and Italy. The parties coordinated their positions on the eve of the meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian delegations. Members of the Ukrainian delegation reaffirmed Ukraine’s commitment to peace efforts. They elaborated on the items on the agenda, which include a meeting of the leaders, a full ceasefire, and humanitarian confidence-building measures.
In addition, on the eve of the meeting, Ukraine handed over an updated peace memorandum to Russia. It reads as follows:
– A complete and unconditional ceasefire, on land, in the air and at sea, for at least 30 days, with the possibility of extension. It should be monitored by an international mission led by the United States.
– The exchange of prisoners should be based on the “all for all” formula.
– The return of deported Ukrainian children should be monitored by international institutions.
– Security guarantees, both short-term and long-term, from international partners.
– No concessions of territories – Ukraine emphasizes that the ceasefire does not mean legalization of the occupation.
Instead, Russia refused to provide its version of the peace memorandum.
What the two countries agreed on at the talks in Turkey
According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov, the parties agreed to exchange seriously wounded and seriously ill prisoners in an all-for-all format.
They also agreed to exchange all soldiers aged 18 to 25 years. An agreement was also reached on the return of 6,000 bodies of dead soldiers,” Umerov said.
He added the following:
“As for the negotiations on a ceasefire for at least 3 months, as proposed by Ukraine, the Russians have only today handed over their proposals.
In addition, Ukraine has handed over to Russia a list of hundreds of Ukrainian children whom it demands to return, said Andriy Yermak, head of the OP.
“The return of Ukrainian children is an integral part of a just and lasting peace and a key element of trust, the first test of sincerity of intentions. We are waiting for a response. The ball is in Russia’s court,” he said.
Meanwhile, Russia continued to demand the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territories it claims. These are Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kherson regions.
Talks in Istanbul on June 2: What the Ukrainian side says
According to Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Serhiy Kyslytsya, after the talks in Istanbul, Russia refused to cease fire.
I would like to note that the Russian side refuses to cease fire. But experts will continue to consider it,” Kyslytsya said at a briefing on June 2.
According to him, the head of the Russian delegation to the talks in Istanbul, Vladimir Medinsky, said that Russia had offered Ukraine a ceasefire for two or three days in certain areas of the frontline.
In addition, Kislytsya said that Russia opposed the presence of US representatives at today’s talks.
“At the previous meeting, Russia was against the presence of the US delegation. This is very sad, because the United States plays an important role and is an important guarantor of trust,” said the Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine.
The diplomat added that in order to ensure long-term security in Europe, the United States should be involved in the negotiation process. According to Kyslytsya, it is also impossible to talk about long-term security without Europe.
Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia: what reaction did they cause?
Turkish President Erdogan, according to Clash Report, called the talks between the two countries in Istanbul “excellent.” He expressed hope that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian leader Vladimir Putin would meet in Turkey with the participation of US President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, the Moscow Exchange index rose over 2,800 points after the talks in Istanbul ended. The benchmark bounced back to 2815.38 points, cutting losses to 0.48% compared to the close of the main trading session on Friday.
Negotiations without progress: what is behind the second round of Ukrainian-Russian contacts
The second round of Ukraine-Russia talks, held in a neutral location behind closed doors, ended without any loud statements or breakthroughs. However, behind the scenes of this silence, there are important signals about the state of not only the diplomatic track of the war, but also the geopolitical landscape around it.
Political theater or dialog nipped in the bud?
Political analyst Ruslan Bortnik emphasized that it was more an attempt to demonstrate some progress than a real breakthrough. According to him, the parties exchanged their demands during the first contact, and now they are just imitating the movement – “camouflaging it with cosmetic agreements on the exchange of prisoners.”
As of now, the expert admits, the only real agreement is to continue the dialog. This is important, but strategically, the positions of Kyiv and Moscow remain mutually exclusive. That is why analysts are already looking not at this round, but at the third round of negotiations, which could be decisive-if it takes place at all.
All the cards are already on the table. If the next time the creation of working groups and subgroups on specific issues does not begin, then this is the end of the negotiation process,” Bortnik believes.
Moscow is stalling until the fall
Political analyst Volodymyr Tsybulko sees no signs of the Kremlin’s real readiness to seek peace. According to him, Russia plans to keep up the pace of hostilities at least until the end of the fall.
Russia is still charged to continue fighting. Their economy is collapsing, but there is no desire to switch from war to recovery,” the expert explained.
“Against this background, there is a high probability that the negotiations are being used by the Kremlin as a manipulation tool to gain time, stabilize the frontline, or reduce pressure from international actors.
Tsybulko believes that Ukraine should propose realistic ideas that will be supported by its Western partners and, potentially, China. One such step could be a 30-day ceasefire as a gesture of goodwill that would allow for a structured phase of the peace process.
Everyone likes a 30-day ceasefire as a start. Russia, on the other hand, wants a high bar – a lasting peace on its terms. We have to conduct a coordinated diplomacy so that the G7 and at least partially China stand behind our position,” the political scientist added.
International component: the stakes are rising
The change in international rhetoric is another important background to the negotiations. The G7 summit in June may become a turning point, when either a certain format of support for Ukraine’s negotiating position will be fixed, or the world will recognize that the diplomatic window is closing again.
China has a special place in this process. According to Tsybulko, Beijing does not perceive Ukraine as a full-fledged geopolitical player, but it is sensitive to pressure from the European Union, its main trading partner.
China looks to Europe and the United States, but it is the EU that has leverage. If Europe puts pressure on Beijing, it, in turn, can put pressure on Moscow,” the expert believes.
“The current situation resembles a chess game in the endgame. The parties cannot and do not want to agree to each other’s terms, but they also do not want to leave the game completely. It is critical for Ukraine to save face with its allies by demonstrating a willingness to engage in dialogue, but without capitulating.
However, the diplomatic process has limitations. If the third round of talks does not bring clear signals about the structuring of the dialogue-with working groups, roadmaps, and control by mediators-it can be stated that the peace process is frozen.
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