US-Russia talks: is it possible to lift sanctions?
18 February 15:22
Thetalks between representatives of the United States and the aggressor country, the Russian Federation, have been going on for more than two hours. According to Russian negotiator Kirill Dmitriev, Moscow is seeking to resume economic cooperation with Washington, especially to bring American oil companies back to the Russian market. Komersant ukrainskyi asked political analyst Ruslan Bortnik whether it is possible to lift sanctions against Russia in the energy sector.
Half of Russian companies are under Western control
Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy remains closely linked to Western financial institutions. According to political scientist Ruslan Bortnik, a significant part of Russia’s leading companies, particularly in the oil and gas sector, are owned by Western investors.
The political scientist points out that this is the reason why the West does not always support Ukraine’s strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, as they also affect the interests of Western companies.
“Approximately half of the leading Russian companies are owned by Western investors – American and British. This includes Rosneft and other companies. A significant part of the Russian oil and gas sector is owned by Western investors. Their activities were frozen, but they continued to own these companies. That is why, by the way, our Western partners were often against Ukrainian strikes on the Russian energy system. Because these strikes, among other things, hit their assets,” the expert explains.
Key issues in the negotiations
Negotiations are currently underway between Russia and the United States, which are likely to focus on economic and security aspects. According to Ruslan Bortnik, the Russian side is primarily seeking to unfreeze its assets and return to global markets.
“I think that the key areas for negotiations now, speaking about the economy, are the following. This is the lifting of sanctions, the unfreezing of Russian assets, and the restoration of Russian access, primarily for Russian energy companies, to world markets, especially the European one,” the political scientist said.
Political and security aspects of the negotiations
From the composition of the delegations, we can draw conclusions about the priorities of the negotiations. The Russian side is represented mainly by economists and businessmen, while the American delegation is dominated by representatives of law enforcement agencies.
“Pay attention to the composition of the delegation: on the Russian side, it has a pronounced political and economic character, and on the American side, it has a pronounced political and security character. While on the Russian side there are people who speak on behalf of the economy and no security officials, on the American side there is the head of the CIA, politicians and security officials, and no economists,” Bortnik said.
This suggests that Russia is seeking to negotiate economic concessions, while the United States is focusing on security and geopolitical risks.
What to expect from the talks?
According to the expert, it is unlikely that this round of talks will lead to a concrete result. The parties are currently discussing only general principles and outlines of possible agreements.
“Therefore, it is difficult to say how it will end. I think this is only the first round of negotiations. The parties are talking about principles, about the basic outlines of a future agreement. It seems to me that this time it will be extremely far from any plan, a specific document, and everything will be limited to a general declaration,” Bortnik concludes.
The negotiations are ongoing, and it is difficult to predict their final results. At the same time, discussions on sanctions and energy cooperation may become an important marker for future international relations.
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Negotiations in Saudi Arabia
As you know, on Tuesday, February 18, representatives of the United States and Russia met in Saudi Arabia to hold preliminary talks on a truce in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Until now, it was unclear whether Ukraine’s representatives would participate. Some sources reported that they would. Three rounds of talks were supposed to take place:
- US – Russia;
- The United States – Ukraine;
- Ukraine – the United States – Russia.
Obviously, this information turned out to be unreliable, or the arrangements have changed, and there will be no Ukrainian representatives at the table.
Trump’s position on Ukraine
During the election campaign, Donald Trump repeatedly said that he would stop the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. This deadline has already passed.
Also during the election, the media spread the so-called “Trump Plan”. The plan was that the United States would use its influence to stop the war, taking into account the status quo. To do this, Trump would force Putin and Zelenskyy to sit down at the negotiating table. If Putin does not agree to negotiate, the United States will give Ukraine all the weapons it needs to win on the battlefield. If Zelenskyy refuses to negotiate, the United States will completely stop helping Ukraine.
This plan, in its various variations, included a provision that Russia would retain the territories it temporarily occupied and that Ukraine would not join NATO.
However, later Trump seemed to “forget” about this plan. In particular, he voiced scenarios in which he would force Russia to capitulate due to the decline in world oil prices.
After Trump was elected President of the United States, one of his advisors, Brian Lanza, said that Ukraine should forget about Crimea. Trump’s entourage, however, was quick to deny this statement and said that Lanza could not speak on his behalf.
Currently, the US Special Representative for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is talking about 100 days within which he wants to reach some kind of agreement. Of these, 28 days have already passed. During this time, the US presidential administration has established contact with the Kremlin, an American envoy has traveled to Moscow, and Trump has spoken to Putin on the phone and agreed to meet in Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile, in exchange for military support, US President Donald Trump demanded $500 billion worth of rare earth metals from Ukraine. He said that the US should have access to Ukraine’s natural resources, regardless of whether Kyiv manages to reach a peace deal with Russia. Ukraine sent the US its version of the agreement, but the US rejected it, accusing Ukraine of refusing to sign the agreement and calling the decision short-sighted.
At the Munich Security Conference, US representatives said that they would hold talks with the Russians in Saudi Arabia in the coming days, but Europeans were not invited.
