“Pavlohrad is not in danger” – Zhdanov tells about occupants’ plans at the front
28 October 15:29Recently, the topic of Pavlohrad in the Dnipro region has been raised more and more loudly in the Ukrainian information space. They say that the Russians have come close to the city, so it is facing a real threat. MP Mariana Bezuhla called for a circular defence for Pavlohrad (as well as Izium).
Komersant Ukrainian asked military expert Oleh Zhdanov to assess the situation.
According to the military expert, there is no direct threat to the city at the moment.
“I would recommend those who panic to rewind the Deep State map exactly one year back, even more. Summer 2023 is where we started to repel the enemy. Therefore, I do not think that today Pavlohrad is under a direct threat of occupation by Russian troops,”
– the expert emphasises.
He hints that the frontline in the Pavlohrad area has hardly moved forward in a year. Indeed, if we compare the current map with the summer of 2023, the progress is very insignificant. Since then, the Russians have taken Maryinka and launched an assault on Toretsk, which is being fought for right now. Of course, Kurakhove and Pokrovsk should be prepared. The former is planned to be occupied by the end of the year, while the latter is still relatively calm. However, according to Zhdanov, Pavlohrad is out of the question.
According to Zhdanov, Dnipropetrovs’k region is not currently part of Putin’s political plans. The only thing the occupiers may consider is creating a buffer zone, but Russian troops do not have sufficient capabilities to do so.
Real threats: focus on the east
Instead, fears about Izyum in the Kharkiv region, which Bezuhla also called for a circular defence, have more grounds. According to Zhdanov, it is near this town, along the Oskil River, that Russians plan to gain a foothold.
“The nearest prospect is Donetsk and Kharkiv regions, in particular the Oskil River,”
– zhdanov explains. According to him, the Russian command is trying to:
- close the line along the Oskil River;
- go down to the south;
- fully occupy the Donetsk region.
“The biggest task of the Russian command, in my opinion, will be to capture Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – they will not calm down without them,”
– the military expert emphasises.
Further plans of the occupiers
Regarding further threats, Zhdanov notes a possible second stage – an attack on Zaporizhzhia region. However, the expert is convinced:
“Until they resolve the issue of Donetsk region, they will not go anywhere from there.”
Thus, according to Oleg Zhdanov, the main threat is currently focused on the eastern direction, especially in Donetsk region, while reports of an immediate threat to Pavlohrad are premature.