Both drafts of the “peace” agreement – American and Ukrainian – published: a comparative analysis
25 April 14:12
ANALYSIS
The Reuters news agency has published both documents, which now constitute the agenda of “peace” negotiations in the Russian-Ukrainian war. "Komersant Ukrainian" analyzed them.
The US “final proposal”
The first was presented by the US in Paris on April 17 asthe “final offer” from the US to both sides. We publish it from the original, translated into Ukrainian.
Framework agreement between Russia and Ukraine
To be delivered orally
Overview: These terms represent the final offer from the United States to both sides.
Ceasefire
- Permanent ceasefire.
- Both sides immediately engage in negotiations on technical implementation.
Guarantee of Ukraine’s security
- Ukraine receives a reliable security guarantee.
- The guarantor states will be a special group of European states and interested non-European states.
- Ukraine will not seek to join NATO.
- Ukraine can continue the process of joining the EU
Territory
- The US legally recognizes Russia’s control over Crimea.
- The US de facto recognizes Russian control over Luhansk.
- The United States de facto recognizes Russian control over parts of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson regions.
- Ukraine returns the territory of Kharkiv region.
- Ukraine regains control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant through U.S. control and management, with power distributed to both sides, and of the Kakhovka dam.
- Ukraine enjoys unimpeded passage along the Dnipro River and control of the Kinburn Spit.
Economy
- The United States and Ukraine are implementing an economic cooperation/minerals agreement.
- Ukraine will be fully rebuilt and receive financial compensation.
- Sanctions against Russia imposed as a result of the conflict since 2014 will be lifted.
- US-Russian economic cooperation in the energy and other industrial sectors.
Counterproposals of Ukraine and Europe
This document was drafted during a meeting in London between representatives of Ukraine and Europe on April 23 and handed over to the United States. We provide a translation of the material published by Reuters.
OFFICIALLY CONFIDENTIAL
Framework for a Russian-Ukrainian agreement
Ceasefire:
- Commit to a complete and unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on the ground and at sea.
- Both sides immediately begin negotiations on technical implementation with the participation of the United States and European countries. This is in parallel with the preparation of the agenda and conditions for a full peace agreement.
- Monitoring of the ceasefire under the leadership of the United States and with the support of third countries.
- Russia must unconditionally return all deported and illegally displaced Ukrainian children. Exchange of all prisoners of war (“all for all” principle). Russia must release all civilian prisoners.
Security guarantees for Ukraine:
- Ukraine receives reliable security guarantees, in particular from the United States (Article 5-like agreement), although there is no consensus among the allies on NATO membership.
- No restrictions on the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
- The guarantor states will be a special group of European countries and interested non-European countries. No restrictions on the presence, armament and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine.
- Ukraine continues its accession process to the EU.
Territory:
- Territorial issues will be discussed and resolved after a full and unconditional ceasefire.
- Territorial negotiations begin on the basis of the line of control.
- Ukraine regains control over the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant with the participation of the United States, as well as over the Kakhovka dam.
- Ukraine enjoys unimpeded passage along the Dnipro River and control over the Kinburn Spit.
Economy:
- The US and Ukraine are implementing an economic cooperation/agreement on minerals.
- Ukraine will be fully rebuilt and receive financial compensation, including through Russian sovereign assets, which will remain frozen until Russia compensates Ukraine.
- The US sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 may be subject to gradual easing after a sustainable peace is achieved and subject to reinstatement in case of violation of the peace agreement (return to the previous state).
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Comparative analysis of two proposals to end the war
1. Ceasefire
The US proposal:
- A simple “permanent ceasefire”.
Ukraine/European response:
- “A complete and unconditional ceasefire in the sky, on the ground and at sea”.
- Additional requirement for US-led ceasefire monitoring.
- Mandatory return of deported Ukrainian children and exchange of prisoners.
Difference: The Ukrainian side details the conditions and adds a commitment by the US to monitor the ceasefire. It also adds a humanitarian component that is not in the US proposal.
Commonality: Both sides agree to a ceasefire and immediate negotiations on technical implementation.
2. Security guarantees
US proposal:
- “Reliable security guarantees”
- “Ukraine will not seek to join NATO”
Ukraine/Europe’s response:
- Security guarantees, including guarantees from the United States (an agreement similar to Article 5).
- “There is no consensus among the allies on NATO membership” (but there is no outright rejection).
- “No restrictions on the Armed Forces”.
- “No restrictions on the presence, armament and operations of friendly foreign forces on the territory of Ukraine.”
Difference: Ukraine does not agree to a complete rejection of NATO and insists on no restrictions on its armed forces and the presence of allies. At the same time, the U.S. proposal did not include any such restrictions, and the issue was kept silent.
Common ground: Both sides agree to security guarantees from a group of states, including European and non-European countries.
3. Territorial issues
US proposal:
- Legal recognition of Russian control over Crimea.
- De facto recognition of Russian control over other occupied territories.
- Return of the occupied territories in Kharkiv region to Ukraine.
Ukraine/Europe’s response:
- Territorial issues “will be discussed and resolved after the ceasefire”.
- Negotiations begin “on the basis of the line of control”.
- No prior territorial concessions.
Difference: Ukraine categorically rejects prior recognition of Russia’s occupation of the territories, but covertly hints at a willingness to talk about it after the ceasefire.
Commonality: Both sides agree that Ukraine will regain control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (with US participation), the Kakhovka Dam and the Kinburn Spit, and that unimpeded passage along the Dnipro River will be ensured.
4. Economic issues
US proposal:
- Complete lifting of sanctions against Russia.
- US-Russian economic cooperation.
Ukraine/Europe’s response:
- Sanctions “may be subject to gradual easing” only “after a sustainable peace is achieved”.
- Mechanism of “return to the previous state” of sanctions in case of violation of the agreement.
- Russian assets remain frozen until compensation is paid.
Difference: Ukraine demands a conditional lifting of sanctions with a mechanism for their reinstatement, while the US proposes a complete lifting. Ukraine also proposes clarity in the mechanism of compensation.
Commonality: Both sides agree to a US-Ukraine economic cooperation agreement on minerals and full restoration and financial compensation for Ukraine.
Overall conclusion
The US proposal is more focused on a quick end to the conflict with substantial territorial and security concessions to Ukraine and normalization of US relations with Russia.
Ukrainian response:
- Rejects previous territorial concessions.
- Retains the option of NATO membership.
- Insists on no restrictions on the Armed Forces and the presence of allies.
- Adds important humanitarian requirements.
- Demands conditional and gradual, not immediate, lifting of sanctions.
- Insists on full compensation from Russia.
On the one hand, this demonstrates a significant divergence between the vision of a “just peace” from the American and Ukrainian perspectives. At the same time, it is noticeable that the parties agree on the need to establish a ceasefire, as well as to take into account the “realities on the ground” and the demarcation line.
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