The industry association predicts a decline in oilseed production of up to 5%. Farmers complain about the decline in crop quality and lower profits for processing companies. But what does this mean for an average Ukrainian?
This year’s harvest was adversely affected by the abnormal heat. Oilseeds are no exception. President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation Leonid Kozachenko in an exclusive commentary 
draws attention to the consequences to be expected.
“On the one hand, lower yields, on the other hand, worse quality indicators, which are worse than last year. This will certainly affect prices.”
Leonid Kozachenko
The consequences will be felt not only by those who process sunflower, but also by those who grow it, the farmer says. Now the price of sunflower at the height of harvesting is 21-22 thousand hryvnias per tonne ($515), while last year the amount was less than $500. And this is despite the fact that the price was supposed to decrease during this period, Kozachenko emphasises.
“Yes, it is good for agricultural producers and farmers, but there will be no profit for processing companies. If we take into account logistics and processing costs, the income will be $3-8 per tonne of oil, whereas last year it was $15-50. We have never seen such a meagre profit.”
Leonid Kozachenko
In particular, this is due to the fact that the capacities that can actually be used in sunflower processing are more than twice the amount of raw materials we have, the market expert says.
Thus, the level of competition has reached a historic high, and the level of profit is at a minimum.
How much will sunflower oil cost in supermarkets?
Forecasting sunflower oil prices in 2025 depends on many factors, including yields, weather conditions, energy costs, demand on foreign markets, the state of Ukraine’s economy and the impact of the war.
However, it is already evident that prices for sunflower oil in supermarkets are gradually increasing.
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Back in May 2024, the price of Oleina refined sunflower oil (850 ml) averaged UAH 56.06, while at the end of September the average price was UAH 58.77. The price increase was about UAH 2.5. Experts believe that the price increase will not stop there.
In general, this will not reduce the motivation of farmers, says Leonid Kozachenko, President of the Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation. He says that even under such conditions, it is the most profitable crop compared to others, such as wheat or corn.
What are the forecasts of Ukroliyaprom?
In the 2024/25 marketing year, Ukraine expects a decrease in the production of seeds of major oilseeds. Total volumes may reach 20.32-21.6 million tonnes, which corresponds to 95-99.6% of the last season’s level (21.69 million tonnes), according to the Ukroliyaprom association.
At the same time, sunflower production will decline to 11.8-12.5 million tonnes, which is a decrease of 7.5-2.1%. The area under the crop will decrease by 2.3% and the yield by 6.1%.
Rapeseed will also experience a decline – its harvest is forecast at 3.42-3.6 million tonnes, which is 11.2% less than last season.
The EBA notes that the final figures may change due to abnormal weather conditions, in particular heat, which affects yields.
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Author: Anastasia Fedor