Oleg Zhdanov: “Russia’s exit from Syria is a deal between Putin and Erdogan”
9 December 17:53
OPINION
After the fall of Bashar al-Assad ‘s regime , Russia plans to withdraw its troops from field positions in Syria, leaving them only at the bases in Tartus, Deir ez-Zour and the Khmeimim air base. Komersant ukrainskyi asked military expert Oleh Zhdanov how to interpret this event, what consequences it will have for the region and Ukraine, and whether it is possible to draw analogies with the Russian-Ukrainian war in Syria.
For Zhdanov, the situation does not look quite the same as for most commentators who believe that Russia has been effectively slapped in the face in Syria and is running away with its tail between its legs. Rather, he sees it as a consequence of Erdogan’s complicated geopolitical arrangements with Putin that could have far-reaching consequences.
“At first it looked like Erdogan had caught Putin. But now it is clear that no one is shelling Russian troops, they are calmly traveling in columns with flags to their bases in Tartus and Hmeymim to evacuate. So I think this is a “deal” between Turkey and Russia,”
– says the expert.
He even suggests that in order to reach certain agreements with Erdogan, Putin could have promised him some concessions on Crimea.
“What did Putin trade Syria for? There may be several versions here, up to the fact that Erdogan could have gotten Putin to promise him that he would be allowed to enter Crimea. And they will govern there together. Because Erdogan really wants Crimea, he talked to us about it,”
– the expert suggests.
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The “gas component” of this issue is not too important for Russia, Zhdanov believes. As you know, there is talk of a gas corridor running through Syria that could bring fuel from Qatar to Europe via Turkey. According to the expert, the importance of this issue is exaggerated.
“Qatar wants to pump gas, and Erdogan is likely to build this pipeline. But Putin has the Yuzivske shale gas field under his feet, and I think there is no less gas there than in Qatar,”
– the expert notes.
Nevertheless, Russia’s withdrawal from Syria is definitely already being presented as a defeat for Russia, so in geopolitical terms it is quite beneficial for Ukraine, Zhdanov says. Moreover, the expert assumes that Russian troops will leave the country altogether. At the same time, this creates new challenges.
“At the tactical and operational level, this is a deterioration for us. Because now Russian equipment and personnel will come from there to our front, and we will have to deal with it here,”
– zhdanov said.
