“No one can be calm on May 9”. Vitaliy Kim on signals from Russia, mobilization and de-occupation of the Kinburn Spit
2 May 17:35
Russia has not changed the intensity of its shelling of Mykolaiv region for a hundred days. However, the region is not only withstanding, it has sheltered about 120,000 IDPs and is preparing for a large-scale economic restart.
Is it possible to withdraw Russian troops from the Kinburn Spit as part of the negotiations? What is the situation with mobilization in Mykolaiv region and is there a sense of public fatigue? How do local authorities view Putin’s promises of a “truce by May 9”? Read about security, economy, mobilization, humanitarian situation and the new industrial strategy of the region in an exclusive interview with Vitaliy Kim, head of the Mykolaiv Regional Military Administration, in "Komersant Ukrainian".
- How has the intensity of shelling in Mykolaiv region changed since the beginning of the negotiations? After all, it was in March and April that the enemy’s shelling was more intense, especially against civilians.
No, it hasn’t changed in 100 days. There were two attempts at large-scale massive shelling. But they resulted in minimal damage, and our defense forces shot down a lot of things. We have constant shelling of Ochakivska and Kutsurubska communities, which are located across the sea, through the strait with the Kinburn Spit – this is the closest point. The rest of the region is relatively calm.
- What types of weapons does Russia use to attack the region?
There are new types of UAVs – they are trying to launch Bandera, Lancets and jet drones. However, they are not very effective at the moment because of our Defense Forces.
- The Russians are “conveniently” trying to control drones from the Kinburn Spit, which are used for various tasks – strike, reconnaissance, etc. According to military expert Roman Svitlan, it was therefore very important for Ukrainian intelligence to determine the location of the enemy’s command and control centers and destroy them. He says that such an operation took place (there is no official confirmation). Do you have any details?
I don’t know what specific case the expert is talking about. It was mentioned in the reports, and repeatedly, that the Russian command posts there were hit, including the command posts of the Russians. But I cannot say about the size and importance. At the same time, our defense forces are working on a regular basis. They do not allow us to feel comfortable on the Kinburn Spit.
- Do you have any information about the number of Russian troops on the Kinburn Spit and their location?
Yes, there is a general understanding.
- How critically important is the Kinburn Spit for the Russians from a military and logistical point of view? After all, according to the US plan published by Reuters, Ukraine can regain control, in particular, over the Kakhovka Dam. Ukraine would also gain control of the Kinburn Spit and unimpeded access to the Dnipro River. Could Russia do this voluntarily?
I can’t say for sure, but I know for sure that the Russians need the Kinburn Spit solely to control the sea access from Mykolaiv ports. That’s all. It is inconvenient to keep it there. You need to know that this is a nature reserve, and even jeeps cannot pass through 90% of the territory.
And, let’s just say, even in peacetime, people used to travel there on specialized vehicles. There are three small settlements there that are almost unpopulated right now because they are almost unfit for civilian life due to mines.
Therefore, if the Russians are there, they will hold it and blackmail it only to control the exit from Mykolaiv ports. We definitely need it, and I believe that it can be within the framework of negotiations that the Russians will release this territory. Because administratively, this is the territory of Mykolaiv region, even though there is no land connection with this enclave, so to speak.
- Russia’s withdrawal from the Kinburn Spit: what would it change for Mykolaiv region?
Well, I think, in general, we need to stop the hostilities, and then resume the work of Mykolaiv ports. Yes, this is very important for us, because it is about 30% of the region’s economy. And it’s primarily important for our farmers, because we have very complicated logistics now, and we are suffering from it, so to speak. But the fact that we can restore it quickly is for sure.
- Does Mykolaiv region remain the leader in mobilization among other regions?
We are among the leaders, but we are not number one or number two in Ukraine. If you remember, it is Zaporizhzhia and Khmelnytskyi regions. But we are doing our best and trying to work on the quality of the tasks so that we have motivated soldiers – boys and girls who will defend our country. That is why we work not only on quantity but also on quality.
- What are the public sentiments on mobilization and do you manage to avoid “busification”?
We try to work correctly. There are no scandals, in fact. But… It’s been three years of war. And this is the same as nine or ten years during the Second World War. Our time is accelerating. Everyone is very tired, so the motivation is poor. But there are brigades where guys are going to follow their commanders.
The number of people who are ready to defend our country has not decreased, give or take. Many guys are already there. So, I think this is why there are certain problems at the information level. There is dissatisfaction because most people who wanted to fight are already fighting.
- It is known that there are about 100 thousand IDPs in Mykolaiv region, mostly from Kherson region. Do you have enough housing, humanitarian aid and medical resources to accommodate people?
There is enough for 99%. People are on their own – either with friends or renting housing, finding work, etc. From memory, we have 122 thousand IDPs, most of them from Kherson and Kherson region. Some of them work in Kherson but live in Mykolaiv or Mykolaiv region. We are coping with all of them. We’ve been doing this since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, so it’s already a routine and a common story for us. There are no special difficulties.
- Ukraine has signed an agreement with the United States to establish a reconstruction investment fund. Will Mykolaiv region be attractive to partners, and are any programs already being implemented?
We started preparing for this story a year ago. We are creating an industrial park and relying on it as a strategic direction for the region’s recovery. That is why we are in the process of formalizing and preparing. And I hope that this will be the driver of our economic recovery.
- What is your attitude to Putin’s proposal for a May 9 truce? Are these concerns primarily about your own security? After all, Zelensky said: “It’s right that they are worried about the parade.”
I don’t pay attention to what Putin says at all, because it’s really a pure game to achieve his goal. And what the president says is true. No one can be calm on May 9. Because if they are allowed to shoot, why can’t we?
Over the three years of the war, our unmanned systems, including long-range systems, have advanced significantly. In addition, there have been recent strikes on the plant that produced Shakedowns, on fiber optic production – the targets are being achieved, and Russian air defense is not coping. In addition to the technical characteristics that have increased in our country, there is also quantitative growth. This is being produced on a regular basis and in large quantities. Therefore, I believe that they are worried for a reason. Because the last, at least five, operations planned by our Armed Forces have been successful. That is, I think the Russians understand that if we plan something, we will implement it.
So, even during the period of international negotiations, Mykolaiv region remains under attack. However, the region is not only holding the line, but is also strategically preparing for reconstruction. The Kinburn Spit is a nodal point in the military confrontation, and its de-occupation could be a turning point for unblocking ports and economic growth.
