Forecast

“The next months will be terrible”: The Economist gave Ukraine a pessimistic forecast

Delays in military aid packages, imposition of neutrality on Ukraine without any guarantees, and destruction of the Ukrainian energy system by Russia are the consequences of Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency for our country, The Economist predicts. This is reported by Komersant ukrainskyi with reference to the relevant material of the publication.

According to The Economist, all the risks and consequences of the White House’s policy change for Ukraine can be divided into several groups.

Military consequences

Currently, the White House is working on two strategies that could theoretically help Donald Trump fulfill one of his promises to end the war in Ukraine.

The first, associated with Trump’s presidential candidate J.D. Vance, involves freezing the conflict on current lines and forcing Ukraine to be neutral without any obvious security guarantees or restrictions on Putin.

Thesecond plan, which Ukraine favors, was outlined by Trump’s former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo in the Wall Street Journal. It focuses on increased military and financial support as a deterrent to Moscow, while keeping open the prospect of NATO membership.

All of this is happening against the backdrop of a deteriorating situation on and off the front lines. Amid a breakdown in trust between society, the army, and the political leadership, Ukraine is trying to replace battlefield losses with conscripts, barely reaching two-thirds of the target. A senior Ukrainian military commander acknowledges that morale is falling in some of the worst areas of the frontline. A source in the general staff suggests that almost a fifth of the soldiers have deserted their positions.

In addition, The Economist calls it quite possible that Russian troops will cross the administrative border of Dnipropetrovs’k region by the end of 2024.

Economic consequences

The media emphasizes that Trump’s complete abandonment of Ukraine is unlikely, not least because of the mood in his own Republican party. But as a dealmaker, Trump is likely to demand something in return from Ukraine. This could be, for example, access to its natural resources. He will care much less about liberal values.

Russia will also resume its campaign to destroy much of the country’s energy infrastructure. These attacks will inevitably intensify.

Political consequences

The Economist, speaking about Ukraine’s short-term political prospects, quoted former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko.

“They (Russians – ed.) will try to do something. Destroy the energy system, try to kill the leadership. The next three months (after Donald Trump’s victory – ed.) will be terrible,” Prystaiko said.