Peace in exchange for Crimea: political scientist explains what is behind the US statements
21 April 13:16
Discussions of new proposals to end the war between Russia and Ukraine have once again made headlines in the international press. In particular, Western media publications have reported on the possibility of a compromise that would see Ukraine refuse to join NATO and recognize Crimea as part of Russia in exchange for a ceasefire. These reports are causing concern among Ukrainians. Political analyst Oleg Lisnyi explained in his commentary for "Komersant Ukrainian" why these statements may be a manipulative element of pressure rather than a real diplomatic course.
This is an element of bargaining and pressure – nothing more
Lisnyi said that such ideas are an informal element of geopolitical bargaining designed to push Kyiv to make concessions.
“I think the Americans are accusing this in the sense that it is an element of bargaining and pressure on Ukraine, that you have to pay for every step with territory,” Lisnyi said.
But Ukraine, he said, has already drawn red lines, and concessions on the issue of territories are unacceptable.
Lisnyi emphasizes that President Zelensky has already clearly stated that territorial issues are not for discussion, and Ukraine has not authorized any international partner to negotiate concessions.
“The president has stated this in his press appearances that we are not discussing the territorial issue. And in Paris, the president did not give a mandate to discuss territorial issues. So, this may happen again in London.”
Crimea is a red line of international law
The expert sees a particular threat in the possible recognition of Crimea as Russian by the United States, which would actually mean the collapse of international law:
“For us, the issue of recognizing Crimea will be a violation, the final violation, not only for us, but for everyone, the final violation of international law. Because after that, if the United States hypothetically recognizes this as a means of pressure, and it turns out that we are pressured and Russia is given another carrot, then international law will finally cease to exist. Any strong state, if it is nuclear, can take any territory, and it will end badly.”
Despite the pressure, Kyiv is not backing down from its position. Lesnyi emphasizes that the position of the Ukrainian authorities remains principled in matters of territorial integrity.
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“So I think that the Americans can talk about it, they can make further press injections, but the Ukrainian side has defined it as a red line,” the political analyst said.
NATO is on the table, not under the table
Regarding the prospects of Ukraine’s accession to NATO, Lisnyi notes that, despite the current situation, Ukraine is not abandoning this course, even if the West is trying to reduce the degree of publicity:
“As for NATO, we realize that we are not accepted, not yet. But, again, I quote the president and the foreign minister: the NATO issue is on the table, on the Ukrainian side, not under the table, as the Americans want it to be.”
What will happen if the US “withdraws from the process”?
In the event of a repeated statement by London on the Ukrainian status of Crimea, Lisnyi does not rule out new attempts at pressure, including threats of the US withdrawal from the negotiation process.
“There will be attempts to put pressure again. I think the Ukrainian side will be able to do it correctly and explain it. And what we may hear, and we hear this regularly now, is that the American side, if someone does not agree, wants to withdraw from the process. We can hear it.”
According to the expert, this would indicate not the strength but the weakness of American diplomacy:
“But the American withdrawal from the process shows that it is a weak diplomacy, a so-so negotiator, and the authority of American diplomats, and America as such, will be actually destroyed. If not completely, then it will suffer a serious blow.”
Lisny also points to the broader geopolitical implications:
“And I would definitely not do this if I were the Americans, because it’s about credibility and consistency. It’s not the first time they’ve abandoned their allies. And to abandon them in Europe? This is not Afghanistan. They are comparing us to Afghanistan. We are not Afghanistan. This is a war in Europe.
Consequences: changing global roles
According to the political scientist, the US withdrawal from the negotiation process will open the way for China, which can use the precedent of recognizing Crimea to legitimize its aggression against Taiwan:
“It will be difficult for Ukraine, but it will stand and fight, and America will move to another plan, to the second. And China will come out on top, in fact, in this sense, as an aggressor. It may even be ahead of Russia.”
In conclusion, Lisnyi emphasizes that any actions to recognize the annexed territories could become a dangerous precedent for other global conflicts, especially for Taiwan.
“Because if we link the issues of Crimea and Taiwan, China will say that you want to recognize them conditionally, but we want to take away Taiwan’s “home harbor”. And it will be a global war.”
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