Between growth and decline: how Ukrainian economy sectors performed in April
16 May 14:07
In the first quarter of 2025, the Ukrainian economy grew by 0.8% compared to the same period last year. This is stated in the Monthly Economic Monitoring of Ukraine by the Institute for Economic Studies, according to
At the same time, the Institute clarified that it had previously estimated growth at 1.1%, and also explained that it had revised economic growth figures for the first quarter of 2025 given that the State Statistics Service published actual data on the state of industry in January, which turned out to be worse than previous estimates.
What were the results of the economic sectors in April
– Extractive industry: the decline deepened to almost 10% yoy (yoy). As noted in the monitoring, the sector is suffering from Russian attacks on enterprises, including gas production. Also, the loss of mines in Selydove and Pokrovsk affected the April figures.
– Electricity: decline decelerated to 5.8% yoy as compared to over 8% in March. Positive dynamics is attributed to decrease in Russian attacks on energy infrastructure.
– Manufacturing: growth accelerated to 3.3% yoy (as compared to 2% in March). Growth was driven by higher consumer demand and defense orders.
– Agriculture: contraction by almost 3% yoy, which again reflects only results of livestock production. However, there is a risk of further deterioration in the next months due to unfavorable weather conditions: harvest of berries and fruits is likely to be worse than last year’s high performance.
– Trade: growth by about 2% yoy. Retail trade continues to grow, but wholesale component shows decline due to increase in direct sales and slowdown in exports.
– Transport: contraction by almost 6% yoy. Situation in the sector remains difficult. The impact of the decline in pipeline transportation after the suspension of Russian gas transit to Europe continues.
Some more key April figures
In April, electricity imports decreased by 30% mom to 191 thousand MWh. Electricity exports almost doubled to 157 thousand MWh.
Four nuclear power units are under repair.
Merchandise exports in April dropped by 2% yoy and imports increased by 7% yoy.
In April, inflation slowed to 0.7% mom, the lowest rate since last summer.
The Institute for Economic Studies also emphasized that despite the revised estimates for the first quarter, the forecast for real GDP growth in 2025 of 2.9% remains unchanged.
As a reminder, the April macroeconomic review by the KSE Institute stated that Ukraine’s economy remains stable, but at the same time, risks associated with global instability and the situation on the labor market are growing.
Experts have predicted GDP growth of about 3% annually and an acceleration in 2026-27 after the end of the war. The key factor for a sustainable post-war recovery was called productivity growth through investment.
The deficit is expected to decline from 16% of GDP in 2025 to 10.2% in 2026 and 6.4% in 2027, as revenues are projected to grow. Inflation will start to slow by mid-2025, as its main drivers – higher electricity costs, wage growth, and producer prices – will weaken, and the NBU’s tighter monetary policy will have a significant impact.
After peaking at around 14% in Q2 2025, KSE Institute forecasts inflation to decline to 8.6% in Q4 2025 and approach the central bank’s 5% target by the end of 2027.
